Democrat Debate Preview/State of the Race

Tonight is the last debate before voting starts in Iowa (the site of the debate). Soon we’ll move on from dumb punditry based on nothing but the poll du jour and instead onto dumb punditry based on cherry picked results that fit their preconceived notions. This debate will feature 6 candidates (Sanders, Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, & Steyer). Nobody knows what will be talked about during the debate yet (though since CNN is hosting so we know Hillary Clinton will have been leaked the questions already) but there will definitely be questions on impeachment, why we can’t afford to pay for Medicare For All like every other major country, and why war with Iran might actually be good. Wolf Blitzer is one of the moderators tonight which will be interesting (1st time that sentenced has ever been typed out) to see if any of the candidates will speak out and take an anti-drone stance directly to his face. There will also almost certainly be a question about the Warren/Bernie sexism thing that leaked yesterday. Recap Here for anyone that missed it or just likes to read some good ol’ fashioned CNN bashing. (Side Note: What is wrong with Elizabeth Warren? From not running in 2016 to not endorsing Bernie in hopes of being VP to releasing a DNA test to now having her campaign leak something from a meeting 2 years ago…..whatever the political equivalent of the Midas Touch is, Warren seems to have the opposite. Did she receive a recent endorsement from Drake or something??? Warren had her surge, got all the glowing media coverage and now is resorting to desperate attacks like this. She went after Pete in the last debate and was pretty effective, why not keep doing that? It’s so easy even Amy Klobuchar’s mom jokes were landing against him. Pete looks like a grown up Patrick Bateman mini-me or a candidate created perfectly in a CIA lab to be President except he was cut short by about half a foot (just enough to give him a Napoleonic-complex). If you’re Warren and looking to attack someone new why not Biden? Warren never touches the Hunter Biden stuff but is willing to imply that the person she’s closest to (both personally and ideologically) is sexist which seems like a wild strategy to this pundit jabroni. The whole thing makes little sense but we’ll see how she handles it tonight.

Another thing that I’m sure will be touched on is electability. Now that the establishment media has finally realized Bernie could actually win, the attacks are sure to be on their way. It could backfire for them though as it highlights the holes in their groupthink that Bernie is unelectable but Biden is the most electable out of anyone. Instead of trying to convince you why that’s wrong, I’m gonna resort to a tactic favored in sports media, the blind resume. I’m gonna show 2 candidates record and let you decide who is more electable (keep in mind how Trump won in 2016):

Somehow the same geniuses who saw Trump effectively attack Clinton in 2016 over the Iraq War, Trade Deals, and Corruption think the guy with all the same baggage is somehow the most electable. The idea that Biden is the most electable is so accepted in the media its glossed over as if its a fact. Assumptions like that are the reason less people are tuning in to hear the “expert” opinions and instead turning to idiots like me on the Internet.

The overall State of the Race right now seems to be a 4 way race for the first 2 states (Iowa & New Hampshire) with the other candidates looking to use a good performance in one of those states to keep them in the race . Because of this I’ve got the field into 3 tiers now, those who can plausibly win the nomination, those who need momentum from an early state, & billionaires. Below I’ll lay out the tiers and each person’s path to victory.

Can Win the Nomination:

• Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren: Both Sanders & Warren are in a very similar position. If one of them wins the first two contests that could catapult them into winning big on Super Tuesday and becoming the unquestioned frontrunner. If either wins 1, it obviously helps but they’ll still be in the pack. Worst case for both of these candidates is if they don’t win either Iowa or New Hampshire in that case they could be on a path to dropping out.
• Joe Biden: Best case for Biden is that 2 different people win Iowa & New Hampshire and he can hang on in Nevada, South Carolina & on Super Tuesday. Worst Case for Biden is either Sanders or Warren win both and significantly cut into his support. If that happens his only appeal (electability) could be shattered and this run will end like the previous 3 times Biden has tried to run, failure

Candidates Needing Momentum

All the other candidates need momentum from the first two states to give them a chance to get significant delegates/bring in the money to keep them in the race. The Top person in this category is Pete Buttigieg who could win in Iowa or New Hampshire but it’s hard to see him winning the nomination if he can’t break 1% with African-Americans. Winning early might help but it seems crazy to think a big chunk of black voters will support the guy who has controversy over policing & race relations in the small town he was mayor as well as the guy who faked black endorsements for a plan of his during this campaign. Amy Klobuchar needs a strong performance in Iowa to prove she has actual support and keep her in the race. A poor performance would likely lead to her dropping out if her “MidWest appeal can’t work in Iowa (quick prayer for her staffers if that’s the case). Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard seem to be focused on New Hampshire and a good performance there, or a surprising performance in Iowa, would keep them afloat while disappointing performances could likewise see them exit. Though I will say Yang is unique in that his grassroots fundraising could keep him in the race for a while if they stick with him.

Billionaires

The last tier of candidates are the billionaires Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg. The media was shocked recently by Steyer’s rise in Nevada & SC (if you want to know why he’s surged, click here). Both are spending insane amounts of money so far which has bought them single digit support in polls. However, it’s very difficult to imagine either one has the ability to actually get people to vote for them. The only good thing about these 2 in the race is that for so long political scientists and laymens alike have argues about the role of money in politics and now we will finally see exactly how much support a person can straight up buy.