Today, New Hampshire will vote and *fingers cross* the Democratic Party won’t fuck this up too. In Iowa Bernie Sanders looks to have won the Popular vote with him nearly tied with Pete in delegates. However, these results mean nothing because of the colossal screw-up by the DNC and Iowa Dems. The data still isn’t accurate so either Bernie or Pete could end up on top in delegates. The only clear thing heading into New Hampshire is that with Biden’s slip, Bernie is clearly the fronrunner. Now the only question is who will rise to become the Bernie alternative. Pete needs some support from people of color to become that, Bloomberg could purchase that role, Biden’s campaign could return from the edge of collapse, or Warren could scoop up some of the people from the rest and go to 2nd.
Now let’s briefly at where each candidate stands and what their path is going forward. (If you’re looking for just the betting guide skip to the bottom).
FrontRunner(s)
Bernie Sanders:
Coming out of Iowa and into NH, Bernie looks like the only frontrunner. He looks like he won the popular vote in Iowa and could have won the delegates and he looks poised to win in NH. If he does, it looks increasingly likely he will pick up the momentum to win in Nevada and/or South Carolina and then clean up on Super Tuesday and put himself in good position to win the whole thing. I’m sure we’ll see establishment freak-outs and tons of negative stories from “anonymous sources” but just as with Trump in 2016 it’ll be too late. When the field narrows I don’t think there is anyone that will be able to take Bernie 1v1. We’ve already seen Bernie hammer Pete over his billionaire donors, he would continue to attack Biden over Social Security, Iraq, Trade, etc., and while Bloomberg has the money to compete, he would be the perfect foil for Bernie to rail against. Plus he’d have the advantage anytime Trump tweeted about the race as “Mini Mike” is so much more devastating than “Crazy Bernie”. People are worried about Bernie’s electability are silly to me for a few reasons. 1. No one actually knows what is electable. 2. There’s no chance Biden or Pete can go against Trump 1v1. In order to beat someone like Trump who is a lightening rod and a rockstar, you need a rockstar. I think Bernie is the only one who can be that. Last night in NH he drew a crowd of over 7,000 when no other candidate has been able to draw 2,000 there. Just look at the this event and try to tell me Bernie isn’t a rockstar or electable.
Competing for “Bernie Alternative”
Keeping with the 2016 analogy, once Trump started pulling away, the rest of the field consolidated around Ted Cruz. If Bernie starts to look like he’s pulling away people will drop out and a “moderate alternative to socialism” will be anointed.
Pete Buttigieg:
The former mayor had a strong performance in Iowa and may have even won the most delegates. To hang on in the race he needs a similar performance in NH. I’m not sure it’ll matter as he has continued to garner no support among voters of color. And now that the media is pretending he has a change….everyone is starting to pile on him with Bernie going hard after his (40) Billionaire donors and Biden attacking his experience which caps out at mayor of 100,000 and includes never winning a statewide race. Last night at the NH Dem Party dinner, he was booed and the crowd chanted “Wall Street Pete”. While the media and donors still seem to love him, he’s being exposed online for claiming now that “socialism” will make it harder to win in 2020 and that he is too divisive to get bipartisan support when he’s spent recent years saying the exact opposite. He’s running a campaign that boils down to “old ways of thinking” with a fresh face *Similar campaign going on in the MA Senate Primary but with some Kennedy magic mixed in* It’s hard to see Pete being the alternative to Bernie without a win in NH and significantly broadening his support.
Joe Biden:
The former VP had a rough go in Iowa, even spending money late trying to minimize the damage, he finish a distant 4th. From the beginning of the race I have said Biden’s support has been soft but even I was starting to doubt that as he staid fairly steady in the polls. Biden’s whole strategy has been about electability it’s working as well as it has in the past (Gore, Kerry, Hillary (08), Romney, Hillary (16)). Besides electability, the only consistent for Biden is doing weird shit on the trail. From biting his wife’s finger on stage, to calling voters fat and challenging them to push-ups, telling numerous people to vote for someone else, kissing his teenage granddaughter on the lips, to handing reporters pieces of paper with pre-written answers instead of answering a question like a normal person….it’s been a wild and hilarious campaign for Uncle Joe. His main problem seems to be he overperforms in polls because he i known and generally liked…but no one under 65 (and not brainwashed by the MSNBC) thinks he’s the best person for the job. I do like the fact that he’s hammering Pete, with his limited money left, now in NH. He’s making the same electability argument but it works perfectly because it’s calling out someone who’s resume includes helping fix bread prices and only getting like 12,000 votes for the highest office he’s ever held. If he can’t turn this thing around and hold strong in NH or South Carolina it looks like Joe will still be without that elusive 1st career Primary win. On the bright side though, he keeps telling people to vote for someone else and it looks like the voters are listening to him.
Elizabeth Warren:
Out of everyone in this pack, I think Warren might have the best chance to be the Bernie alternative. If you only listen to cable news you may be shocked to hear this as they constantly claim her and Bernie share the same voters. This isn’t really true though as Warren tends to draw support from whiter middle/upper class voters while Sanders has a more multi-racial working class support. This seems to explain why she has swung her campaign into the “Social Justice/Unity” lane. Warren held onto a strong 3rd in Iowa and if she can finish 2nd in NH (or even close 3rd) she might be able to stay around long enough to pick up all the Pete/Joe/Amy voters who are abandoning ship. If Warren can pick up the scraps from those candidates she would be the strongest alternative to Bernie*. *non-billionaire division
Amy Klobuchar:
Amy got the Top 5 finish she needed in Iowa but now she needs to bring in some support in a non-MidWest state. Amy has run her campaign on the 3 M’s; Moderate, MidWest, Mom-jokes. In every debate she is simultaneously declared a winner by 93% of the media as soon as it ends. She is the recipient of the coveted 1/2 NYT endorsement. But her best quality might be how much she seems to loathe Pete. You can tell deep down she wants to scream “If you want a Midwest moderate and one that has actually won statewide races then support me you idiots!!” The problem for her is she can’t go scorched Earth on him cause she needs to pick up his voters if she’s going anywhere. 3 varying-levels-of-fun facts about Amy are she would be the first female President, first President from the state of Minnesota, and the first President to have ever eaten a salad with a comb. While it’s unlikely she’ll get anywhere close to accomplishing those firsts, she is a leading candidate for VP or the cabinet (hopefully one with utensils).
Billionaires
Tom Steyer:
I’m not sure why but I’m actually starting to like Tom Steyer. It might be because it looks like he likes everyone else on stage but no one else seems to really like him. Or maybe it’s that he’s another voice on stage calling out corruption…I’m not sure maybe it’s that stupid tie he seems to have a million of irregardless I’m warming up to him. His strategy has been to bombard airwaves in Nevada and South Carolina and he seems to be focusing more on SC. I don’t think he has a real chance to win anything but he might have spent enough to pick up some delegates and stick around for a while.
Michael Bloomberg:
Michael Bloomberg entered the race late and just said Fuck the first 4 states. Instead he has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on ads in Super Tuesday states where no one else can focus yet. He also has a chance to become the Bernie alternative as he has unlimited money and could pick up some moderate/establishment Biden/Pete/Amy support. I don’t think Bloomberg has a great chance to win unless there’s somehow a brokered convention where he could just buy-off enough support to get the nomination. As his record (supporting Bush, the Iraq War, Stop & Frisk, etc.) get examined I think he’ll plateau or have the empty poll numbers disappear. His candidacy is a great experiment though in seeing just how much support can be bought. So far it seems around 10% and a lot of Mayors. Screw his record or his blatant attempt to buy the nomination and subsequently White House, he should be disqualified for his treatment of dogs. Look at what this “human” does
If you meet a guy and he greets your dog by to trying to grab/shake their snout there’s not a chance in this or any world you trust that person. If Jesus came back to Earth today and first thing he did was try to shake a dog’s mouth….the Catholic Church would immediately collapse and thousands of pedophiles would be unemployed/shipped off to third world zoos churches.
Outsiders
Andrew Yang & Tulsi Gabbard :
Yang and Gabbard are both outsiders who seemingly will depend on the independent minded NH (also an open primary) to keep going. They have both survived thanks to signature issues (UBI or free money for Yang) (Anti-Interventionist Foreign Policy for Tulsi). I think Yang has more of a chance of competing thanks to his bigger grassroots support and depth/uniqueness of his platform. However, both need a strong showing in NH to make the case they should keep going.
Betting Guide:
All of the information and odds for the betting guide come from Predict-It, a site where you can buy or sell “stock” in candidates. You can bet on individual contest winners, 2nd place, the nominee, or on the general election winner (among other bets). As I have said in basically every betting guide, I’d advise hammering Bernie as he’s been under-valued (though that’s changed now mostly). The picks I’m gonna give are for the winner of the nomination, winner of the general, and some individual contest picks.
- Nomination: Though he’s the favorite my pick is still Bernie Sanders: 47 cents (about +120). If you’re high on Bloomberg you can get him at 25 cents (+300) or if you want a risk I’d think about Warren at 5 cents (+1900).
- SC Winner: Again I’m gonna take Sanders at 44 cents (~+122) but if you think Biden will hold on you can get him at 37 cents (~+180).
- SC 2nd Place: If Biden falls he’ll fall hard and I think someone else could pick up 2nd in SC. I would think about Steyer at 22 cents here (~+350). Pete or Warren have great odds if you think one of them can pick up Biden supporters.
- 2nd place in NH: I wouldn’t touch who’s gonna win NH as Bernie is the heavy favorite (80 cents or -400). I think Pete might fall and I’m gonna take a risk at betting he won’t finish 2nd which is 25 cents (+300) and maybe even sprinkle Warren to finish 2nd at 5 cents (+1900).
- Super Tuesday: Since it’s early you can get a winner for a lot of the Super Tuesday states at 30-40 cents. Pick who you think will have the momentum by then and take advantage of the odds.
- General Election Winner: You should know by now I’m riding with Bernie Sanders at 31 cents (~+230). If you don’t trust any of the Dem candidates, Trump is the favorite at 55 cents (-122).
- EXTRA Wild Card Pick: Iowa Winner: Now since the Iowa caucuses were such a clusterfuck there has yet to be a declared winner. There has been a recount initiated by the Bernie and Pete camps and it is incredibly close in state delegates. Because of that I’ve picked up some stocks for Bernie to be declared winner in Iowa at 20 cents (+400).
District of Clowns 