Tonight 6 Democratic Candidates will take the stage in Nevada for the reality TV show debate hosted by NBC. Now for this debate preview you, the reader, have several options because here at DoC we cater to those of every learning style. If you hate reading, you’re in luck cause we’ll start with the state of the race in 1 picture. If you like lists, then keep reading because we also have the 6 biggest storylines going into the debate. Keep reading after that if you’re looking for more insightful thoughts (or if you’re just a masochist). If you somehow make it through all that, your reward is a betting guide at the bottom. So just think of this as Dante’s Inferno but for debate coverage…..(which itself would be in about the 7th circle of hell in Dante’s version).
The Primary in 1 Pic
5 Biggest Debate Storylines
- Bernie Sanders: Now that he’s the sole frontrunner it’ll be interesting to see how he’s treated. The moderators will likely attack him and his policies like usual but will the candidates go after him. The debates so far have lacked a lot of attacking or edge but this could be the one that turns the tide especially with people like Warren and Biden desperate.
- Mike Bloomberg’s Debut: After purchasing his way onto the debate stage, we will see how Bloomberg does. Hopefully everyone goes after him so we can have some actual intrigue on the stage for once.
- Price for a Spot on the Stage: Another Bloomberg storyline has been exposing just how much it costs to buy off the DNC. Now any billionaire (or lowly millionaire with nothing better to do) knows the price to get themselves on a democratic debate stage. Instead of spending money on staff or bus tours or whatever the fuck else…Cory Booker, Julian Castro, John Delaney, etc. should’ve used their money to stay on the stage. Something to remember for 2024 I guess.
- Biden’s Articulation: Now some people are saying that Biden biggest struggle is connecting with voters but in debates, it’s undeniably his ability to form complete/coherent thoughts. If he has trouble doing that tonight the end might be around the corner as more and more of his donors jump ship for the U.S.S.
OligarchBloomberg. - Warren’ Strategy: Not too long ago the media was ready to crown Warren but now her campaign is in trouble. After a decent performance in Iowa she embarrassed in NH where she couldn’t even get 10%. She entered the race as a progressive going hard after corruption but has now seemingly pivoted to the “woke” SJW lane. Look out for who Warren goes after. Look to see if the “unity” candidate makes any attacks tonight (and on who).
- Pete & Amy: Both of these Midwestern moderates are in the same position of having campaigns that are like goat yoga classes…..in that they are almost exclusively supported by rich white people. Both need to attract voters of color and without that it’s hard to see either of their campaign trajectories going up. Again it will be interesting to see if they attack each other, focus on Bernie, try to end Biden, or haze the newbie Bloomberg.
More Thoughts
Ironically, the media has helped Bernie Sanders tremendously. By constanlty ignoring or demeaning him they have allowed him to somehow be the frontunner and an underdog at the same time. Meanwhile the rest of the field is fractured which could allow Bernie to lock this thing up sooner rather than later. It’s hilarious watching how desperate the media has become. They have used the electability/socialism smears for over 4 years on Bernie and he’s withstood that. After throwing so much at the wall the only thing they have left right now is that his supporters are mean online. Now if you’re unfamiliar with the American news media this is your crash-course on why they’ve lost the respect and trust of the public. There are seemingly infinite problems in the world yet the media finds time to cover the breaking news that some people are assholes online. But of course there are only 2 reasons it gets coverage. 1. They do not like Bernie. 2. People are being mean to them. They miss the good ol’ days where they were respected as authorities, could make or break candidates at their whim and could delude themselves into thinking their position/salary were deserved. But now they face the harsh reality that real people don’t care what they have to say and can just go online and tell them to fuck off and take their shitty takes elsewhere. I will give MSNBC credit though, they had a clip before NH which was maybe the funniest moment of the campaign so far. A woman who was torn between multiple candidates, told them that she was pushed over the edge to vote for Bernie because of how bad/biased the MSNBC coverage of Bernie was.
This debate is also notable because it will be the first appearance for Michael Bloomberg after the billionaire paid off the DNC to change the rules. I have mixed feelings about this. Overall I’m Team #FuckBloomberg, but it is objectively hilarious to see just how much it costs to buy off the DNC. (Honestly Bernie Sanders should just start a grassroots fundraiser to buyout the Democratic leadership. He could raise enough money to get Tom Perez to resign in less than 24 hours) But I am glad to see Bloomberg on the stage so people realize he’s more than just a guy who bombards you with ads. In reality he’s a 5’5 (former Republican) Oligarch with a record of terrible policies, quotes, and behavior. Yes he has used his fortune to advance some good causes…but he could also just continue to do that instead of wasting that money on a vain Presidential run. Joe Biden needs to come out and show he can do more than namedrop Obama and talk about winning hypothetical elections. It would also help if his teeth didn’t almost fall out of his mouth, his eye doesn’t start randomly bleeding, or if he didn’t tell everyone to vote for someone else (something he apparently loves to do).Warren, Pete, & Amy are people who should be on the attack as I don’t see any way all 3 of them are still in the race after Super Tuesday. They could all gang up on Bernie or Bloomberg, or they could try and put Uncle Joe out of his misery, or backstage it could be like that seen from The Dark Knight where the Joker (in this case Tom Perez) drops a broken pool stick down on the floor in front of them and says there’s only room for one of them (my money would be on Amy in that).
Betting Guide
Anywhere on the Internet you can find shitty takes on politics. It is a rarity that you will find a place that will give you shitty political takes and shitty betting tips. As usual with these betting guides, all lines come from Predict-It which lets you buys “shares” of candidates so I will give you the share price as well as a more traditional line.
Most Speaking Time: Right now Bloomberg and Bernie are the favorites at around 40 cents (about +150). I will probably sprinkle a little bit on both of those guys as I think there probably gonna get it. If you like anyone else they have great odds (My pick out of the rest would be Warren at 9 Cents (+900).
Least Speaking Time: Right now the favorite is Klobuchar at 35 cents (+186) with Warren a close 2nd at 30 cents (+233). My pick would probably be Amy but I hate picking all favorites so I’ll go with Biden at 15 cents (+560).
# of Candidates who say “Billionaire”: This is a lock for at least 2 (Bernie/Warren) and with Bloomberg on the stage I think everyone will say the word billionaire at some point, so I’m gonna take 6 for 20 cents (+400). I might also sprinkle some cash on 5 just in case at 27 cents (~+300).
Non-Debate Bets: As I’ve been saying for months I’m still betting on Bernie to win the nomination. He’s somehow even odds at this point so I might throw some more $$$ on him tonight with my winnings. I’d also bet on him to win SC (about the same odds). I’d also look to bet on 2nd place in SC. If Biden collapses, someone like Steyer, Peter, or Warren could slide up into 2nd place and they all have great odds right now.
District of Clowns 