The Nevada Caucus, the 3rd contest, is here. The frontrunner, Bernie Sanders, is also the favorite in Nevada, so it looks like everyone else is fighting for 2nd. As always we’ll start with the state of the race in 1 picture.
Frontrunner
Bernie is the clear frontunner and is in position for a commanding win in Nevada. After the January FEC reports came in, it seems he is the only (non-billionaire) candidate with the money to compete hard on Super Tuesday. And from the last debate it seems like he is the only candidate capable of entering the convention with the most delegates. Plus you can tell by the media freakout just how well he’s doing. There’s endless coverage of his mean supporters, him not releasing every single piece of his medical info, and now some Russia smears as well. They’re literally throwing everything at the wall to see if anything can stick and slow him down.
Non-Bernie Tier
Everyone else (that isn’t a billionaire) is in need of cash to keep funding their campaigns (After seeing the newest FEC reports it makes sense why all these people now have SuperPACS airing ads for them). To get this money these people need good results to keep that money flowing in. For Pete and Amy they need to attract non-white voters. After Iowa and NH neither one stands a serious chance unless they can add some color to almost all white support. Elizabeth Warren just needs anyone to support her at this point. After a strong debate she seemingly needs good performances the rest of the way to stay in it. Although a loss in her home state of Massachusetts on Super Tuesday could be the end. Joe Biden is making his last stand in South Carolina. A loss there would seemingly send him packing, though a bad Nevada performance could do that too.
Billionaires
Mike Bloomberg finally got on stage and was promptly demolished. His strategy still remains to bombard the airwaves, peel off as many delegates as he can and then try to buy the nomination at the convention. Tom Steyer seems to be relying heavily on Nevada and South Carolina. Without strong performances in either of those places it seems unlikely Steyer will continue. Though he does have the money to waste if he wants to.
At this point Bernie is in a great position. A strong win in Nevada will keep his momentum going into South Carolina and Super Tuesday. It seems like the media and other candidates are resigned to the fact that none of them can get more delegates than Bernie but will have to take it from him at the convention. I just don’t see that happening though as it would literally be the end of the Democratic Party.
District of Clowns 