After an impressive Super Tuesday performance, Joe Biden has now officially made it into a 2 person race. After California is all counted it’ll likely be close to a tie in the delegate race.
Bernie’s coalition so far has been young people, working class, and Latinos while Biden has been strong with older voters and African-Americans. The media narrative has been that Biden is the most electable but that just has never made any sense. I mean just look at this chart and explain how Biden won’t get hammered by Trump
Biden has all the weaknesses that Clinton had in 2016 and even though he is generally more well liked than Hillary, Biden lack of articulation should equal that out. Meanwhile the “unelectable” Sanders consistently is considered the most trusted on issues by the voters. Plus in every states that’s had exit polls has found positive support for a Single Payer healthcare system (even if deep red states that Biden won like SC, Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas).
Bernie Sanders has the energy plus an actual grassroots movement while Biden does not. Biden has the support of the democratic establishment and the media. On a debate stage though Biden will likely be exposed with nowhere to hide as it’ll just be him and Bernie. The thing that Biden does have going for him is that the Democratic base seems to have been conditioned over the years to be safe and scared especially this year when everyone is paralyzed trying to find the best bet to beat Trump. Bernie clearly has the movement, the future of the party, and ideas behind him but Biden might have enough establishment support plus fear over “electability” to push him over the edge.
The next states to vote are Idaho, North Dakota, Washington, Michigan, Missouri, & Mississippi on Tuesday March 10th.
You’d expect Biden to win Mississippi as he’s been strong in the South. He could win Missouri if he can dominate the black vote in places like St. Louis and Kansas City. Bernie tied Missouri in 2016 but he’ll need a big turnout of young voters and to bring back all the rural voters he got last time to win again.
Washington should be a place where Bernie wins but he’ll need to open up a decent size lead to pick up significant delegates over Biden there. Bernie won overwhelmingly in Idaho and North Dakota in 2016 and he’ll need to do that again though neither states has many delegates.
The biggest prize on this day though will be Michigan. Whoever wins this state will have a much stronger case on electability. Bernie got an upset win here in 2016 but he’ll need to get more black voters than he’s gotten in the South to vote for him in Michigan. He should go after Biden hard on Trade but Biden will have the auto bailout to tout. Whoever wins Michigan will get a lot of positive coverage along with an “he’s electable” bump.
This race is far from over and either of them will have to go on a real run to reach 51% of the delegates. If they don’t one of the them will need to reach 40% and have a 5% or so lead to really be the obvious choice at the convention.
District of Clowns 