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South Carolina Debate Preview

Tonight 7 candidates will face off in South Carolina ahead of the primary there on Saturday. Bernie Sanders comes in as the sole frontrunner after going 3/3 to start. He broke it open in Nevada where he doubled up 2nd place Biden. If he goes 4/4 it’ll seemingly be over after Super Tuesday (where 1/3 of the delegates are up for grabs) so this may be the last time for someone to try and stop him (if you even can at this point). Right now it seems like South Carolina will be the last stand for about half the candidates and Super Tuesday will be make or break for the other half. I can’t see more than 3 or 4 max still going after that.

As always here’s the state of the race in 1 picture:

The first thing to look for tonight is whether the bottom 5 candidates attack Bernie at the start of if they go right for Bloomberg’s jugular again. Biden & Steyer need to be strong ahead of the primary and with Super Tuesday a week away people like Warren, Amy, & Pete will need to either attack Bernie or Bloomberg or just fight it out and try to be the last of the 3 standing. Hopefully this debate is as fiery and entertaining as the last one. It should be as so many campaigns hang in the balance of what happens in the next week or so.

Front-Runner

Bernie Sanders is in a great spot going into the debate. He’s coming off a huge win in Nevada and as of now he’s the only non-billionaire to have the money to compete on Super Tuesday. I’d also be happy if i was him, when I see the media/other candidates grasping at straws trying to go after him. They can’t really go after him on the issues because he’s the most trusted on the issues. It’s tough to say he’s unelectable when he’s literally winning elections now and it’s tough to say he has a ceiling or is divisive when he almost got 50% in Nevada. So now they’ve gone for his supporters are mean online, he’s a Russian asset, he once said something nice about Fidel Castro decades ago (the same “something nice” Obama said when he was President), or that he hasn’t released all of his medical records. I don’t think any of these attacks hurt him, especailly when he can point to Mike Bloomberg who hasn’t realeased any tax returns and who’s said nice things about Xi Jinping in China this decade. In reality, unless Biden wins SC it’ll likely be Bernie v. Bloomberg and I think that’s the perfect match up for Bernie.

South Carolina Last Stand

South Carolina appears to be Joe Biden’s last stand. He needs a win to keep going and even if he does it might be too late. Biden’s been hurting for cash already so, (along with a win) he’ll need a huge fundraising haul/SuperPAC dump to fund operations/ads in all those states on ST. Biden needs to have his best debate ever tonight in order to try and get some momentum going forward. If not Uncle Joe might never get that 1st career Presidential Primary win.

Tom Steyer has invested heavily in South Carolina and if he doesn’t do well he should get out of the race….but Steyer has the money to waste if he wants to keep going. He’s back on the stage tonight and he needs to make a good showing to stay in the top 3.

Make or Break on Super Tuesday

The campaigns of Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, and Pete Buttigieg all seemingly will be make or break on ST. Both Warren and Klobuchar’s home-states vote on ST so a loss there should be enough to get them outta the race. Pete needs to attract non-white voters to continue and despite his best attempts at Obama cosplay, after getting caught faking black endorsements for the second (2nd) time this campaign, that seems unlikely.

The big question for those 3 is who they go after tonight. Bloomberg is the perfect foil for Warren and she should go hard at him again. Amy & Pete seemingly will go hard for Bernie/Warren but I’m not sure either one of them can do anything to get themselves back into it.

Billionaire

The good news for Michael Bloomberg is that he couldn’t do any worse than the least debate. A win for him tonight would be just standing on the stage and having everyone forget he was there. His only plan seems to be buy delegates and hope to get enough to force a contested convention. He’s the only candidate in the race with negative favorability, has stop & frisk, NDAs, ties with China, and his name in Epstein’s little black book. It’s hard to underestimate someone with $60 billion dollars but that money seems like the only thing working for him at the moment.

Marianne Williamson Endorses Bernie

Tonight in a surprise appearance in Texas, former Presidential candidate Marianne Williamson endorsed Bernie Sanders. Now I know clowning Marianne is fashionable as is writing her off as some crazy spiritual woman but for some reason I’ve always liked her. She was an outsider talking about things no one else was. She talked about the issue of health care by bringing up agriculture, chemical, and clean air/water policies. She called out corporate influences across the board. She talked about the broken spirituality of the country. Plus one of her nicknames online was “The Orb Mother” and that’s just cool as hell.

In the debates, when she was given time to speak, she almost always got resounding applause. When she talked about how our health care system is really a “sick-care” system, when she talked reparations or when she railed against “wonkiness” and plans in favor of love. But the best reaction she got was at a debate in Detroit where she said what happened in Flint wouldn’t have happened in the rich Michigan suburb that she used to live in.

Now I know a lot of people will warn about her being a grifter, but even if she is I don’t care. I’d rather be grifted by someone like the Mother or Orbs than by someone like that rat Mayor Pete or Mike Bloomberg. So while the rest of you might laugh at us, Me and Marianne will get the last laugh when we’re harnessing the power of love against dark physic forces.

If you wanna hear more Marianne, or if you just want a taste of her magic, here’s the speech she gave tonight endorsing Bernie (about 6 mins):

State of the Race Before Nevada

The Nevada Caucus, the 3rd contest, is here. The frontrunner, Bernie Sanders, is also the favorite in Nevada, so it looks like everyone else is fighting for 2nd. As always we’ll start with the state of the race in 1 picture.

Frontrunner

Bernie is the clear frontunner and is in position for a commanding win in Nevada. After the January FEC reports came in, it seems he is the only (non-billionaire) candidate with the money to compete hard on Super Tuesday. And from the last debate it seems like he is the only candidate capable of entering the convention with the most delegates. Plus you can tell by the media freakout just how well he’s doing. There’s endless coverage of his mean supporters, him not releasing every single piece of his medical info, and now some Russia smears as well. They’re literally throwing everything at the wall to see if anything can stick and slow him down.

Non-Bernie Tier

Everyone else (that isn’t a billionaire) is in need of cash to keep funding their campaigns (After seeing the newest FEC reports it makes sense why all these people now have SuperPACS airing ads for them). To get this money these people need good results to keep that money flowing in. For Pete and Amy they need to attract non-white voters. After Iowa and NH neither one stands a serious chance unless they can add some color to almost all white support. Elizabeth Warren just needs anyone to support her at this point. After a strong debate she seemingly needs good performances the rest of the way to stay in it. Although a loss in her home state of Massachusetts on Super Tuesday could be the end. Joe Biden is making his last stand in South Carolina. A loss there would seemingly send him packing, though a bad Nevada performance could do that too.

Billionaires

Mike Bloomberg finally got on stage and was promptly demolished. His strategy still remains to bombard the airwaves, peel off as many delegates as he can and then try to buy the nomination at the convention. Tom Steyer seems to be relying heavily on Nevada and South Carolina. Without strong performances in either of those places it seems unlikely Steyer will continue. Though he does have the money to waste if he wants to.

At this point Bernie is in a great position. A strong win in Nevada will keep his momentum going into South Carolina and Super Tuesday. It seems like the media and other candidates are resigned to the fact that none of them can get more delegates than Bernie but will have to take it from him at the convention. I just don’t see that happening though as it would literally be the end of the Democratic Party.

SHOCKING Interference into Primary REVEALED

Last night there was breaking news on shocking interference into the primary. No it is not an oligarch buying his way into the race, buying endorsements, buying a spot on the stage, and planning on buying the nomination at the convention. Nope the Jeff Bezos-owned-Washington Post dropped a story the night before the caucus that Russia is helping Bernie in the primary. Did the story mention how he was being helped or offer any proof besides the words of someone in the intelligence community…..nope. We can assume the “Russians” are helping Sanders on social media as that’s what a lot of the post 2016 red-scare focused on.

Everyone online who has yet to fully accept the results in 2016 or has had their brain broken by Trump/Russia were allll over this. Bernie had been briefed on this a month ago so the hashtag #BernieKnew trended as these #Resisters couldn’t believe Bernie would keep this a secret. What they didn’t mention was that the briefing was classified and that other members of Congress were also briefed. Next the partial-lobotmy patients started #BernieisaRussianAsset. This one to harder to debunk cause everyone knows that the top priority for Putin is to give all Americans healthcare.

In reality there should only be 2 takeaways from this news. 1. The fact that the “Russian asset” smear card was played this early means that the establishment is SHOOOK and 2. it shows how terribly terrible the media is. Before this news the media smear du-jour was Bernie Bros being mean online. This was already dumb and ridiculous but then they drop the news that Russia is presumably using bots to support Sanders online meaning……the people they are complaining about could actual be Russian bots. Think about that for a second….Russia wants to sow discord, Bernie is surging, the media hates Bernie, Russia creates Bernie bots, media criticizes these bots as “Bernie Bros”, media then releases story about Russia helping Bernie on the day before Nevada caucus…

That’s right….the media are using what could be Russian bots to smear Sanders and his supporters and using the allegation that there are Russian bots to smear him again.

MSNBC’s nightly primary coverage

So while Bernie is the frontunner and the rest of the candidates seem to be planning a convention coup, this is how the media tries to change the narrative.

Will the Real Elizabeth Warren Please Stand Up????

After her commanding debate performance where she went scorched earth on nearly everyone on stage, people are saying this may be the spark needed for a Warren comeback. But I think the more important thing is to ask where has this Warren been?? She started the campaign strong with all these progressive plans, was the first to call for impeachment, and was fiery at the early debates going after loser moderates like John Delaney. Then she started to rise in the polls and the media was ready to declare it a Biden v Warren race. Then she seemed to backtrack a little on Medicare for All and the tone of her campaign changed. Instead of continuing to dominate the debates she largely stayed quiet, rarely going after Biden or Pete (who in theory should be great targets for her). She seemed to pivot to a more social-justice-warrior campaign focused on “unity” and liberal social issues. She then dropped in the polls and never really recovered. Then this Nevada debate happened and everyone assumes “Liz the Fighter” is back. While I agreed in the moment there were 2 things that threw me off. First one of the last questions in the debate was about a contested convention and the person who has made corruption a central theme of her campaign and is claiming to fight for systemic change is….cool with superdelegates deciding the nominee??? And before the debate Warren tried to take credit for being the only person without a SuperPAC…..only to of course have a SuperPAC launch after the debate to flood the airwaves in Nevada and South Carolina.

So who is the real Elizabeth Warren? Is she the fiery progressive fighter going after corruption or is she the “unity” candidate that doesn’t want to rock the boat or is she just a traditional politician who will say anything she thinks she has to to win? Will the real Elizabeth Warren please stand up???

Nevada Debate Instant Recap

FINALLY there were some fireworks on the debate stage, they started early and never really stopped. We had Warren vs. Everyone, Everyone vs. Bloomberg, Bernie vs. Pete, Pete vs. Amy. Gut reaction Bernie Sanders is the winner, not because he had the best performance (he didn’t) but because Bloomberg & Biden would’ve been better served not showing up at all and because Warren, Pete, & Amy went at each other a lot. This is by far the most likely debate to shift the race as I could see it hurting Bloomberg and it will definitely shake-up the Pete/Amy/Warren tier. My gut take rankings on each person’s performance goes:

  1. Warren
  2. Sanders
  4. Amy
  5. Pete
  7. Biden
  8. Bloomberg

Warren went scorched earth on nearly everyone tonight and if she’s gonna get results it’ll be because of a performance like that. Bernie is also a winner cause he handled himself well while letting everyone else fight it out. Pete and Amy both had decent debates but I’m putting Amy first because 1. it was hilarious that you could tell Amy was envisioning hitting Pete with anything and everything she had on the podium all night and 2. her line saying something like he just memorizes talking points because he lacks real experience was by far the best line either of them had all night. Bloomberg obviously last because…well you saw it…..and if you didn’t just imagine everyone going for the jugular off the jump, him getting booed, and well just basically worst case scenario. NBC’s weren’t as bad as I assumed but still waiting for the Democratic Debates have questions framed from a left-wing perspective. Maybe next time

What every Pundit sees in their nightmares

Random Thoughts

Michael Bloomberg made his debut tonight and was immediately attacked by everyone on the stage. They went after him over stop & frisk, sexual harassment, buying his way into the race, supporting Bush, being against Obamacare, the list goes on and on. But i think what hurt him the most when Warren and Biden went after him on the NDAs. They (rightly) called out that Bloomberg could release these people from the NDAs and all he had to say was he was protecting a consensual contract or some nonsense like that. Bloomberg was getting shit on all night and if you remember that the he bought his way onto the stage….that means tonight was officially the most he’s ever spent to get shit on………..since his last trip to Epstein’s Island of course.

Everyone on stage taking turns hitting Bloomberg

The other big story of the night was Elizabeth Warren going nuclear. Mike Bloomberg is the best thing to ever happen to her campaign. I don’t know why she doesn’t have this same energy all the time. She’s at her best when she’s going after corruption not when she’s picking stupid fights. Her campaign is still in trouble but she might’ve done enough to get the results she needs in Nevada and South Carolina. But if she doesn’t, at least she went down kamikaze style and left everything out on the stage and that makes me like/respect her more.

Joe Biden needed some of the energy Warren had tonight. He is making his last stand in South Carolina and he disappeared multiple times in the debate. (I still can’t believe I lost my bet for Biden least speaking time) He only had a few moments today where he looked lost mid sentence, which is a solid night on the Biden Curve, but besides attacking Bloomberg early he had nothing close to memorable. After that performance, it looks like he’s in danger of not finish top 2/3 in Nevada and that could end up killing his campaign before he can make his “last stand”.

Bernie Sanders clearly dislikes Mayor Pete and he does not hide it well. He loves pointing out Pete’s billionaire donors and how it affects his positions. It seems like an effective attack and Pete even showed his hypocrisy on stage multiple times. He’s said he thinks its smart for Bernie to embrace democratic socialism, praised Denmark tonight (a model country for many of Sanders’ plans) but also in the same debate talks about how worried he is about the electability of socialism and how bad/divisive Sanders’ plans are. Sanders/Warren would be well served to keep attacking Pete over his donors and his hypocrisy….It must hurt Pete to have his high school hero have visible disdain for him…but I know, between Bernie and Amy, it gave Pete some PTSD tonight cause it looked like he was at risk of being shoved into a locker numerous times tonight.

There was a lot of words flying back and forth between Warren, Pete & Amy which makes sense since they are fighting for survival to and past Super Tuesday. When I wrote the debate preview I compared the race between these 3 to a scene in The Dark Knight when the Joker does some recruiting and I don’t mean to pat myself on the back toooo hard buttttt I think it’s a near perfect comparison.

DNC to Warren/Pete/Amy: There’s only room for 1 of you

The questions for the debate weren’t as bad as I was expecting but of course there was the mandatory fear-mongering over socialism. Sanders gave a good rebuttal talking about socialism for the rich and I have seen him give better answers when he has more time. Plus it doesn’t seem to be too big an issue since he won the 1st 2 contests, leads in the polls, and 70% of people in exit polls in IA & NH supported Medicare For All. As much as it physically hurts me to type this (and I never thought I’d say this)……..I have to give Chuck Todd credit for a good question. Please stop booing…..Don’t get me wrong….he still sucks. But when he asked about a contested convention it was verrrryyyyy telling that every other candidate besides Bernie was cool with superdelegates choosing the nominee. After 2016 you’d think every candidate would want less of the DNC involved, less superdelegates but apparently not. It’s almost as if they see that as their only chance to win.

Nevada Debate Preview

Tonight 6 Democratic Candidates will take the stage in Nevada for the reality TV show debate hosted by NBC. Now for this debate preview you, the reader, have several options because here at DoC we cater to those of every learning style. If you hate reading, you’re in luck cause we’ll start with the state of the race in 1 picture. If you like lists, then keep reading because we also have the 6 biggest storylines going into the debate. Keep reading after that if you’re looking for more insightful thoughts (or if you’re just a masochist). If you somehow make it through all that, your reward is a betting guide at the bottom. So just think of this as Dante’s Inferno but for debate coverage…..(which itself would be in about the 7th circle of hell in Dante’s version).

The Primary in 1 Pic

5 Biggest Debate Storylines

  1. Bernie Sanders: Now that he’s the sole frontrunner it’ll be interesting to see how he’s treated. The moderators will likely attack him and his policies like usual but will the candidates go after him. The debates so far have lacked a lot of attacking or edge but this could be the one that turns the tide especially with people like Warren and Biden desperate.
  2. Mike Bloomberg’s Debut: After purchasing his way onto the debate stage, we will see how Bloomberg does. Hopefully everyone goes after him so we can have some actual intrigue on the stage for once.
  3. Price for a Spot on the Stage: Another Bloomberg storyline has been exposing just how much it costs to buy off the DNC. Now any billionaire (or lowly millionaire with nothing better to do) knows the price to get themselves on a democratic debate stage. Instead of spending money on staff or bus tours or whatever the fuck else…Cory Booker, Julian Castro, John Delaney, etc. should’ve used their money to stay on the stage. Something to remember for 2024 I guess.
  4. Biden’s Articulation: Now some people are saying that Biden biggest struggle is connecting with voters but in debates, it’s undeniably his ability to form complete/coherent thoughts. If he has trouble doing that tonight the end might be around the corner as more and more of his donors jump ship for the U.S.S. Oligarch Bloomberg.
  5. Warren’ Strategy: Not too long ago the media was ready to crown Warren but now her campaign is in trouble. After a decent performance in Iowa she embarrassed in NH where she couldn’t even get 10%. She entered the race as a progressive going hard after corruption but has now seemingly pivoted to the “woke” SJW lane. Look out for who Warren goes after. Look to see if the “unity” candidate makes any attacks tonight (and on who).
  6. Pete & Amy: Both of these Midwestern moderates are in the same position of having campaigns that are like goat yoga classes…..in that they are almost exclusively supported by rich white people. Both need to attract voters of color and without that it’s hard to see either of their campaign trajectories going up. Again it will be interesting to see if they attack each other, focus on Bernie, try to end Biden, or haze the newbie Bloomberg.

More Thoughts

Ironically, the media has helped Bernie Sanders tremendously. By constanlty ignoring or demeaning him they have allowed him to somehow be the frontunner and an underdog at the same time. Meanwhile the rest of the field is fractured which could allow Bernie to lock this thing up sooner rather than later. It’s hilarious watching how desperate the media has become. They have used the electability/socialism smears for over 4 years on Bernie and he’s withstood that. After throwing so much at the wall the only thing they have left right now is that his supporters are mean online. Now if you’re unfamiliar with the American news media this is your crash-course on why they’ve lost the respect and trust of the public. There are seemingly infinite problems in the world yet the media finds time to cover the breaking news that some people are assholes online. But of course there are only 2 reasons it gets coverage. 1. They do not like Bernie. 2. People are being mean to them. They miss the good ol’ days where they were respected as authorities, could make or break candidates at their whim and could delude themselves into thinking their position/salary were deserved. But now they face the harsh reality that real people don’t care what they have to say and can just go online and tell them to fuck off and take their shitty takes elsewhere. I will give MSNBC credit though, they had a clip before NH which was maybe the funniest moment of the campaign so far. A woman who was torn between multiple candidates, told them that she was pushed over the edge to vote for Bernie because of how bad/biased the MSNBC coverage of Bernie was.

Top Notch Self-Own from MSNBC

This debate is also notable because it will be the first appearance for Michael Bloomberg after the billionaire paid off the DNC to change the rules. I have mixed feelings about this. Overall I’m Team #FuckBloomberg, but it is objectively hilarious to see just how much it costs to buy off the DNC. (Honestly Bernie Sanders should just start a grassroots fundraiser to buyout the Democratic leadership. He could raise enough money to get Tom Perez to resign in less than 24 hours) But I am glad to see Bloomberg on the stage so people realize he’s more than just a guy who bombards you with ads. In reality he’s a 5’5 (former Republican) Oligarch with a record of terrible policies, quotes, and behavior. Yes he has used his fortune to advance some good causes…but he could also just continue to do that instead of wasting that money on a vain Presidential run. Joe Biden needs to come out and show he can do more than namedrop Obama and talk about winning hypothetical elections. It would also help if his teeth didn’t almost fall out of his mouth, his eye doesn’t start randomly bleeding, or if he didn’t tell everyone to vote for someone else (something he apparently loves to do).Warren, Pete, & Amy are people who should be on the attack as I don’t see any way all 3 of them are still in the race after Super Tuesday. They could all gang up on Bernie or Bloomberg, or they could try and put Uncle Joe out of his misery, or backstage it could be like that seen from The Dark Knight where the Joker (in this case Tom Perez) drops a broken pool stick down on the floor in front of them and says there’s only room for one of them (my money would be on Amy in that).

Betting Guide

Anywhere on the Internet you can find shitty takes on politics. It is a rarity that you will find a place that will give you shitty political takes and shitty betting tips. As usual with these betting guides, all lines come from Predict-It which lets you buys “shares” of candidates so I will give you the share price as well as a more traditional line.

Most Speaking Time: Right now Bloomberg and Bernie are the favorites at around 40 cents (about +150). I will probably sprinkle a little bit on both of those guys as I think there probably gonna get it. If you like anyone else they have great odds (My pick out of the rest would be Warren at 9 Cents (+900).

Least Speaking Time: Right now the favorite is Klobuchar at 35 cents (+186) with Warren a close 2nd at 30 cents (+233). My pick would probably be Amy but I hate picking all favorites so I’ll go with Biden at 15 cents (+560).

# of Candidates who say “Billionaire”: This is a lock for at least 2 (Bernie/Warren) and with Bloomberg on the stage I think everyone will say the word billionaire at some point, so I’m gonna take 6 for 20 cents (+400). I might also sprinkle some cash on 5 just in case at 27 cents (~+300).

Non-Debate Bets: As I’ve been saying for months I’m still betting on Bernie to win the nomination. He’s somehow even odds at this point so I might throw some more $$$ on him tonight with my winnings. I’d also bet on him to win SC (about the same odds). I’d also look to bet on 2nd place in SC. If Biden collapses, someone like Steyer, Peter, or Warren could slide up into 2nd place and they all have great odds right now.

“Vote Blue No Matter Who!” A Twitter Thread in Blog Form:

This year for the Democrats is an important one for Primaries. From the Presidential election to all the down ballot races. Doesn’t matter if you are afraid of socialism or if you’re candidate was screwed by the DNC or if they couldn’t hire anyone due to the blacklisting by the DCCC. You must “Vote Blue No Matter Who”. Remember the importance of the fight. You are supporting the Democrats, the party who puts the country over trivial, tribal bullshit. That’s why your ideology, morality, and conscience be damned you must vote for the Democratic nominee no matter what! Without further ado, here’s a thread of people who fall under the “Vote Blue No Matter Who” umbrella:

*Tom Perez when an app finally works*
Mayor Pete when he sees a Billionaire’s money
Elizabeth Warren anytime someone brings up 2016
Squirtle appealing to the Latino vote
Gabbard 2020 (Part 1)
Kloubuchar 2020
Gabbard 2020 (Part 2)
“Yang/Blue 2020” -MSNBC
Chris Matthews when he hears someone talking about socialism
Joe Biden when his figures out all those people he told to vote for someone else, actually did
Delaney 2020
StarKist 2020: For Small Business Enthusiasts, Those who favor stricter regulations on the fishing industry, & Those who support regime change in Japan
Mayor Pete’s Birth (Footage Courtesy of the CIA)
Bloomberg 2020
Pictured: Candidate Thomas the Tank smuggling illegal lumber from the Amazon Forest
Mini “Mike Bloomberg” Cooper
Bernie laying out his platform

Now Remember, you must vote for any of these candidates, solely because of the color blue. Fuck all the “purity tests”. It doesn’t matter if you agree with all their policies or think they’re corrupt or think they won’t do good for the country. It doesn’t matter if the person was very recently a Republican, doesn’t matter if they love regime change, or Wall Street. Nope doesn’t matter if they’ve taken money from Weinstein or Epstein………no, all that matters is that little D………next to their name on the ballot. It doesn’t matter if you are just color blind. Just remember “Vote Blue No Matter Who” so you can take pride in knowing you helped put in charge a slightly less corrupt party and truly earned that sense of moral and intellectual superiority.

Tom Steyer Spent $2,000 per vote in NH

The New Hampshire Primary was last night and I’m sure you’ve seen all the big stories elsewhere, Pete Buttigieg came in a close 2nd, Amy Klobuchar surprised with a 3rd place finish, Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden didn’t even get 10%…………………………………………oh yeah and Bernie Sanders won.

Brushing up on my anti-Bernie talking points/framing before my interview at MSNBC

But one of the underappreciated stories of the night was Tom Steyer. He spent over $19 million in NH and only got just over 10,000 votes…meaning he spent almost 2 grand per vote. Now let’s put aside how you could better spend $19 million (that would be the world’s first infinite blog), and just look at the strategy. If you’re prepared to throw around $20 mill, instead of wasting it on TV or radio ads why not just give it out to people. I guarantee you would win more votes if you gave 20,000 people 1 thousand dollars each. Now I know some of you with poli sci degrees or nerds (removed the redudancy) reading this will say that it’s against campaign finance laws and illegal. First off, Andrew Yang found some loophole in the laws because he was doing it 2. Our campaign finance laws are as enforced as tough as the laws on jaywalking, anti-trust, or those crazy old ones still on the books for some reason like “no-premarital sex”, “No roller-blading on the Sunday”, “No man can lay with his cow without the express written consent of both his wife and pastor”…….or just any white collar crime I guess. But…back to the point of this blog…..Everyone is looking for ways to get disaffected voters to pay attention and actually vote when the answer is so obvious…..stop being such hypocritical, corrupt, power-hungry, assholes…..I’d be first in line to vote for you if you just gave me and 1,999 other people 10 thousand bucks. Plus you’ll gonna get free media coverage anyway because they’re always looking for some feel good bullshit like this to dilute their product. If you’re Tom Steyer and you’re one of the 2 billionaires trying to buy the race, then you gotta use that to your advantage and just start handing out cash. Guaranteed people will be more likely to vote for you if they see your cash in their hands than if they see your face on their TV. Think About it Tom. And I know what some of you might be thinking, yes I am available to work for your campaign….my DM’s are open.

Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire

Bernie Sanders won the New Hampshire Primary last night by over 4,000 votes. After winning Iowa by over 6,000 votes he know has gone 2 for 2 in the first 2 states….so of course the story in the media are the 2nd & 3rd place finishes of Pete and Amy. It’s hilarious watching pundits across cable news try to spin Bernie winning the first 2 states into a negative. Ironically the media has helped create the perfect situation for him as they allowed him to lay low early when they dismissed him. In propping up multiple Anti-Bernie candidates, there couldn’t be a better scenario for Sanders as the longer the Anti-Bernie vote is split the more it helps him (See: Trump 2016). Bernie is the clear frontrunner in the race and you can tell not only by the results but also by how badly media members are grasping at straws trying to deny it. Let’s look at just how stupid their talking points are:

  • “Bernie only got 1/2 his 2016 vote in NH”: If you try compare this result to 2016 seriously you either 1. Are a cynical hack or 2. Are an inspiration for lobotomy patients everywhere.
  • “Bernie has a Low Ceiling”: They forget to mention he has the highest favorables in the race. They also forget to mention how Pete and Amy have a combined 1% of the black vote. When the media tries to argue the most liked candidate has a low ceiling but not the candidates with no support of voters of colors, it only shows people how skewed their vision is.
  • Their big talking point “electability” is harder to make now that you have to base it on actual votes instead of cherry-picked hypothetical polls. Arguing Biden is electable (after 2 terrible finishes) and the guy who won both of the contests isn’t electable, shows off their intelligence…. just not in the way they’re hoping. While their ship is sinking, Biden and the media are gonna keep harping on the electability argument and (though they’re completely wrong) you at least you gotta respect them going down with the ship (along with any shred of credibility they still have left).
When you have no reason to run….go with electability

Another thing I’ve noticed with the coverage of the primary is that the media seems to have a fetish talking about the “lanes” in the race with a progressive and moderate lane. As usual though this is an overly simplistic and just plain stupid way of looking at the field. You know that voters aren’t that strictly ideological if you talk to them or just look at the 2nd choice numbers in the polls . As the race starts to take form, Bernie Sanders is the only clear frontrunner and the entire dialogue in the party is about him (Do you support Medicare for All, Free College, $15 min. wage, Green New Deal, taking only small donations/no SuperPACs, stopping regime change, etc.). That’s why if we’re gonna talk about the race in lanes, the two lanes should be 1. The Bernie Lane 2. The Anti-Bernie Lane. Barring something big like another heart-attack or a picture of Bernie as a kid wearing a Stalin onesie, I don’t think he is going anywhere. Because the media is so clearly against him and the race is a defacto referendum on his ideas, the other lane is the Anti-Bernie lane (also known as the Media Primary).

This race for the Anti-Bernie lane is crowded right now with Pete, Amy, Biden, Bloomberg, and even Warren vying for the lead. The longer this lane stays divided, the better it is for Bernie but I can’t see anyone getting out until South Carolina. Right now in this media primary there are 2 ways a candidate will be forced to drop out (voters or donors) Pete, Amy, Bloomberg seem to be in the former while Biden/Warren are in the latter.

Pete got the performances he needs to sell himself, his donors, and the media to keep going. If he can’t gain significant support among non-white voters, which I see no reason why he would, then he doesn’t really have a path forward. He sounds like a Obama cover band but has the wall street connections of the real thing. His no real experience, policy flip-flopping, poor track record with people of color and lack of authenticity should be enough to keep Pete from being the Anti-Bernie candidate. Amy faces a similar problem (getting non-white votes) but without some the baggage of Pete. She is probably the best pick for the Anti-Bernie field as she doesn’t have the problems of Pete, Biden or even Bloomberg and seems better at delivering her message recently than Warren. But to actually win she will have to seemingly knee-cap Pete (which she definitely wants to) and must consolidate a good chunk of the Biden/Warren support to have a chance. Bloomberg will get into the race on Super Tuesday, but he might be at the debate next week. He has unlimited money to spend on this vanity campaign so his success will depend solely on whether people will turn out for him once they realize he’s not just some guy who’s always on TV. I am not as high on Bloomberg as a lot of people seem to be. Don’t get me wrong, he could totally buy his way into being the Anti-Bernie candidate but he seems to be the perfect foil for what Bernie’s campaign is all about. Plus I don’t see much enthusiasm for Mini Mike once his track record supporting Bush, the Iraq War, Stop & Frisk, along with a plethora of questionable (at best) comments start coming into greater focus.

Joe Biden hasn’t had a good performance so far by any stretch of the imagination. People sometimes say that old people seem to fall in slow motion and the Biden campaign is the perfect example of that. For months and months people have been saying his support is soft but it couldn’t be proven until the voting actually started. His only hope is a final stand in South Carolina. If he cannot win there it’s all over simple as that…it could be over before that, just depends on when the big donors, keeping his campaign afloat, will pull the plug on ol’ Uncle Joe. Warren is also in a tough place right now. She got less than 10% in a state that borders her home state. After a solid performance in Iowa she fell flat and I don’t understand Warren’s strategy of late. She seems more inclined to attack Bernie than Pete or Biden. If she wants to pick up support it seems a hell of a lot easier to pick away voters from vastly inexperienced, possible CIA plant, Pete Buttigieg or the possibly senile Joe Biden than the passionate support of Sanders. Every state from here on out is massive for Warren as once her grassroots army donations slow down, her campaign is over. Tom Steyer, the other billionaire in the race, seems to be fully invested in Nevada and South Carolina. Poor showings there and he might finally realize its time to stop wasting all his money and invest in some new ties.

3 people dropped out of the race last night as well…though we won’t spend any time on Michael Bennet or Deval Patrick because….well no one cares (see: Iowa/NH/any poll or donations). But Andrew Yang also dropped out and he may be looked at as someone who impacted the race more than anyone else (besides the nominee obviously and maybe Bloomberg). This guy who was literally unknown before the race, outraised and outlasted Governors, Senators, and Members of Congress. He raised money and built support online as he was completely ignored by the Mainstream Media. He caught on because he brought unique ideas to the table (Universal Basic Income) and talked about undercovered issues (Automation, Addiction, Putting Humanity over Profits) and did it with sincerity and humor that other candidates couldn’t. Because of that and because he seemed to actually have a reason to run (unlike Kamala, Beto, Deval Patrick, Michael Bennet). His voice will be missed in the race and now debate moderators will have to find someone else to completely ignore.