Going into this debate, Bernie needed a paradigm shift in the race and he went for it. After about 30 mins of coronavirus talk, Bernie went hard after Biden over social security, the bankruptcy bill, SuperPACs and just overall leadership needed to take tough votes. That was the angle he needed to take, he might’ve needed to say the words “electability” more but it seems like he could’ve done enough but the true test, sadly, will be the media reaction. Do their narratives change? Do they talk about how much Biden lied all night long? Do they talk bout how bad Joe Biden looks?
Biden didn’t have a terrible night but he still looks lost out there at times and looks nowhere near the level needed to take on Trump. Both of them had senior moments but the biggest takeaway was every time he was called out, Biden lied. He said over and over that he didn’t advocate cutting Social Security, even though he admitted it in his answers. He lied about writing the bankruptcy bill, he lied about his voting record, lied about the Iraq War, he lied about Bernie having 9 SuperPACs said “I can name them if you want” and then did not when given the opportunity.
If a lot of people watched this debate, it could help Bernie but the biggest thing might be which clips and talking points the media goes with. They should focus on their contrasting records, visions of the future, and Biden lying nonstop when facing criticism. If they talk about their usual bulshit, then it might not be enough for Sanders.
While on the topic of the media, they were a couple of crazy bad questions as usual. During the Social Security discussion Dana Bash came in and asked Bernie about something in 1996 Bernie said about “adjustments” and whether that makes him and Biden equal on the issue. Not only is this a prime example of the “both sides-ism” that is rotting the media where 1 action/quote = pattern of action, but it was also incredibly misleading. The adjustments she referenced was Bernie saying the cap on income should be lifted so rich people paid more. Just so bad but sadly not shockingly.
There was also a questions about “What consequences should China face for downplaying the virus”. Now any non-sociopath would assume the tens and hundreds of thousands of Chinese people dead, sick, or who lost loved ones would be punishment enough but apparently not enough for CNN.
Overall Bernie went hard after Biden in a way he needed to. Now the only questions left are will the media accurately describe what happened and will it get him voters.
Tonight is the first debate to take place since South Carolina which is no less than 3 months ago, I don’t care what my calendar tells me. Between then and now, Joe Biden got 2 people, who had done better than him up to that point, to drop out and endorse him. He then won big on Super Tuesday and then Tuesday after that. Is the race over? No. It’s basically halftime with neither Biden or Bernie having 1/2 of the delegates needed. Is it close to over? Yes. Bernie drastically needs to change the narrative that Biden is the electable choice which is driving so many voters.
Now he has 2 things working for him, about 1/3 of the voters in the last 2 weeks have said they made up their minds in the days before voting. Second he’s running against Joe Biden. This is a guy who was prone to gaffes *before* his clear cognitive decline. This campaign he has sucked on his wife’s finger on stage, called a voter fat, told another one he was full of shit, made up a story about getting arrested seeing Nelson Mandela, tells voters all the time to just vote for someone else, hands out cheat sheets to reporters instead of answering questions and wandered off camera in his first virtual townhall (and that’s all just off the top of my head).
The only framing for this race so far should be age. Bernie is crushing voters under 45 and doing better the younger you go while Biden is cleaning up on 45+ voters, doing better the older you go. Biden has been winning because older people vote more. Going forward it’s simple if he’s gonna win he’s got to appeal to the future of the party, something he has yet to shown the ability to do. Meanwhile Bernie has got to convince older people he’s more electable to have a chance.
2 Biggest Things to Watch for Tonight:
Bernie in Attack Mode? Bernie needs to come out scorched Earth to change the narrative on the race. He needs to expose Biden as unelectable by bringing up Iraq, Trade, Social Security, basically Biden’s entire record. He needs to distinguish their records and explain clearly why Biden’s record makes him less electable.
Does Biden Look like a Functioning Human? This could help Bernie more than anything he says or does. The bar for Biden’s performances has been borderline underground so far but with only 2 people on the stage, if Biden looks like what he’s looked like in the limited time allowed outside, that could change the narrative.
There’s a reason people saw Biden for over a year and his numbers steadily dropped until South Carolina. People have jumped on board because he’s been given the coveted “electable” tag that the Democratic base has been conditioned into obsessing over.
Tonight might be the last chance for Bernie to change the narrative. He needs to expose Biden over electability over and over. Connect every question/issue back to it. He also just needs Biden to have a typical Biden night. If Biden can keep himself together, keep his teeth in his mouth, combine sentences in a semi-intelligible way and not wander off screen, he might have the momentum needed to carry him over the line.
The Democratic Primary is officially down to a 2 person race. Biden was able to make it that way with a strong performance on Super Tuesday. He is up in delegates right now but with California’s votes still being counted, it could virtually tie up when those delegates come in.
Today 6 states vote, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, Idaho, Washington, and Michigan. Look for Biden to win Mississippi but also whether Bernie hits the 15% needed to get delegates. Missouri was a toss-up in 2016 but it could be Biden’s to lose this time. North Dakota and Idaho….well don’t really matter unless they’re blowouts then they would marginally matter. Washington should be a place where Bernie wins and if he loses there it is not a good sign for his campaign. But all eyes will be on the battleground of Michigan. Sanders was able to pull off the upset in 2016 and will need another win there today. Whoever wins Michigan, even a small win, will get a boost to their electability argument that is so important.
If you listen to the mainstream media, they talk about Biden being electable and Bernie being unelectable as if they’re facts beyond debate. It makes me feel like I’m taking crazy pills. Joe Biden would go into the general with all the same baggage Hillary had in 2016. Just replace emails/Benghazi with Hunter Biden/Ukraine, take out the sexism, and sprinkle on some dementia.
I just don’t understand how people can go through 2016 and still think Biden is the electable one. There is a reason people didn’t coalesce around Biden for over a year when he was called a frontrunner. They only got on when he was the only one possible to stop Bernie. Trump will once again run to the Democrat’s left on trade and foreign policy and he’ll hammer Biden over social security. He will be ruthless on Hunter Biden, which Joe hasn’t shown he can adequately deal with. Yes he can call out Trump’s kids but it doesn’t hit the same when you’re running as the values/morality candidate while Trump clearly isn’t. Plus there’s the cognitive decline that has been on full display. In debates he struggles to form coherent thoughts, his campaign tries to hide him as best they can, he spoke for only 7 mins at his Missouri rally this week. I mean just look at him in 2018 vs now
The Democratic Party is about to nominate this man to go up against insult comic extraordinaire Donald Trump and asking—for obvious reason—if that’s a good idea is frowned upon.
The “Any Functioning Adult 2020” people will have a tough choice if Biden is the nominee
Biden would be a electoral nightmare not only because of all his baggage, and his clear cognitive decline but also because of his ability to win over the left. Every time a voter questions him, he tells them to vote for someone else, calls them fat, or liars. In an interview last night he suggested he would veto Medicare for All if it passed Congress. He does not inspire the left or young people at all.
Say what you want about Trump, but he undeniably has a movement and I don’t see how you beat him without a movement. Bernie Sanders has a movement and Joe Biden does not. It seems the only way Biden would win would be a huge anti-Trump movement presumably if the coronavirus gets worse or if the economy flounders. But if that doesn’t happen, I can’t wait for all the idiot talking heads in the media who are talking about Biden being the only electable one, to be shocked when Biden loses and blame it all on Bernie once again.
After an impressive Super Tuesday performance, Joe Biden has now officially made it into a 2 person race. After California is all counted it’ll likely be close to a tie in the delegate race.
Bernie’s coalition so far has been young people, working class, and Latinos while Biden has been strong with older voters and African-Americans. The media narrative has been that Biden is the most electable but that just has never made any sense. I mean just look at this chart and explain how Biden won’t get hammered by Trump
Biden has all the weaknesses that Clinton had in 2016 and even though he is generally more well liked than Hillary, Biden lack of articulation should equal that out. Meanwhile the “unelectable” Sanders consistently is considered the most trusted on issues by the voters. Plus in every states that’s had exit polls has found positive support for a Single Payer healthcare system (even if deep red states that Biden won like SC, Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas).
Bernie Sanders has the energy plus an actual grassroots movement while Biden does not. Biden has the support of the democratic establishment and the media. On a debate stage though Biden will likely be exposed with nowhere to hide as it’ll just be him and Bernie. The thing that Biden does have going for him is that the Democratic base seems to have been conditioned over the years to be safe and scared especially this year when everyone is paralyzed trying to find the best bet to beat Trump. Bernie clearly has the movement, the future of the party, and ideas behind him but Biden might have enough establishment support plus fear over “electability” to push him over the edge.
The next states to vote are Idaho, North Dakota, Washington, Michigan, Missouri, & Mississippi on Tuesday March 10th.
You’d expect Biden to win Mississippi as he’s been strong in the South. He could win Missouri if he can dominate the black vote in places like St. Louis and Kansas City. Bernie tied Missouri in 2016 but he’ll need a big turnout of young voters and to bring back all the rural voters he got last time to win again.
Washington should be a place where Bernie wins but he’ll need to open up a decent size lead to pick up significant delegates over Biden there. Bernie won overwhelmingly in Idaho and North Dakota in 2016 and he’ll need to do that again though neither states has many delegates.
The biggest prize on this day though will be Michigan. Whoever wins this state will have a much stronger case on electability. Bernie got an upset win here in 2016 but he’ll need to get more black voters than he’s gotten in the South to vote for him in Michigan. He should go after Biden hard on Trade but Biden will have the auto bailout to tout. Whoever wins Michigan will get a lot of positive coverage along with an “he’s electable” bump.
This race is far from over and either of them will have to go on a real run to reach 51% of the delegates. If they don’t one of the them will need to reach 40% and have a 5% or so lead to really be the obvious choice at the convention.
In order to try and stop Bernie, the establishment quickly lined up behind Biden ahead of Super Tuesday. Biden showed up on Super Tuesday with a huge performance but after California votes come in it’ll be pretty much a tie in delegates. The Democratic base seems like it has either been brainwashed by “electability” or has had fear & weakness beat into their brains. Barack Obama WON after he was considered unelectable, while Gore, Kerry, and H. Clinton all LOST after being touted as the safe electable choice. It seems like the media and the party elite have just beaten into people’s heads that to win they must hug the “center” as hard as they can. You can’t actually say you have progressive plans or else your opponent will call you a socialist. You must run solely on things like “unity” “freedom” “choice” or other bullshit empty terms. That’s why they go so hard after Bernie, because they know if he wins that whole way of thinking/running will be over. So they brand him as unelectable with Biden as the safe electable one and the media treats it as fact.
I just don’t understand how people think Biden is the electable candidate. Some of the things that hurt Hillary the most in 2016 were Iraq, Trade, and questions over corruption. Biden has all that baggage but also with the bonus of some cognitive decline. It is shocking sometimes just how hard it has become for Joe to complete a sentence. This guy would get mopped by Trump on a debate stage and if that happens I will be demanding elder abuse charges against the Democratic elite and his top campaign staff.
Another race last night was a Congressional race in Texas where corporate Democrat Henry Cuellar was primaried by young progressive Jessica Cisneros. Cueller was supported by the NRA, fossil fuel companies, the DCCC, Republican mega-donor Charles Koch, and Nancy Pelosi. With all that money and established support against her, Cisneros came within 2 points off knocking off the incumbent. This just shows where the heart of the Democratic establishment is. They’d rather work with Republican donors to protect a guy who Votes with Trump 70% of the time than have to support a progressive who will challenge them.
I really hope that Biden collapses soon because if the establishment can pull him over the line, then I think there will be another 4 years of Trump. Honestly it seems like there are a lot of Democratic elite who would rather Trump than Bernie. At least with Trump, they can do their #Resist bit, sell their books, and go on TV to spew their terrible takes. If Bernie won, they wouldn’t have insight into that world and more importantly they wouldn’t have influence. Plus if Bernie won they might actually have to fight for some of their ideals instead of just compromising off the start.
Super Tuesday was a shocker as after Joe Biden saved his campaign’s life on Saturday, he has made this solidly a 2 person race. He not only held on to his strongholds in the South but won Texas, Massachusetts, and Minnesota with him and Bernie the only ones to get delegates across all 14 states. Even after a near perfect night for Joe, after California is all counted it’ll likely be basically tied on delegates. Regardless of what the media says, this race is far from over. Biden 1000% has the momentum and luckily for him (and unlucky for Bernie) there is not a debate until the 15th and 6 states will vote before that. The only bright spot for Bernie is that the establishment lined up behind a guy who is his own worst enemy.
Last night was embarrassing for Michael Bloomberg after spending half a billion dollars and only getting delegates from a few places. He dropped out today and endorsed Biden. Elizabeth Warren also had a disastrous night after finishing 3rd in her home state and only qualifying for delegates in 3 states. I assume she will be out by the next votes, but you can never really know with her.
While last night was obviously a great one for Joe Biden after the establishment coalesced around him, he won Super Tuesday and officially made this thing a 2 person race. The bad news for Biden is that now that it’ll be him and Bernie 1v1 on the stage, his struggle to form full coherent sentences will be on full display. Also not a great sign for Joe is that the last moderate, free trade supporting, foreign policy hawk, with a list of bad votes and baggage surrounding corruption and their health nominated by the Democrats lost to Trump.
The next contests will be Tuesday March 10th where Mississippi, Michigan, Washington, Missouri, Idaho, and North Dakota will vote. Mississippi should be a big winner for Biden while Washington should be a winner for Bernie and I’m not sure what will happen in Missouri, Idaho, and North Dakota. But the big prize that day will likely be Michigan where the winner will have their electability arguments bolstered. There will not be a debate before those contests which seems like a missed opportunity for the Democratic Party especially since it’ll just be Bernie v. Biden.
Right now it looks unlikely that either Biden or Sanders will reach 51% of the delegates so one of them needs to get over 40% and/or build a lead of at least 5% or so before the convention to prevent a complete shitshow in Milwaukee.
Today’s the day everyone predicted would narrow the field, Super Tuesday, where 1/3 of the delegates are up for grabs….except that consolidation has already happened. 3 people dropped out after SC and the establishment has thrown everything behind Joe Biden. They must’ve offered up something big to get Amy Klobuchar to drop out 24 hours before likely getting her 1st Primary win. Mayor Pete also dropped out and endorsed Biden and even Beto was brought back into the fold. It’s hilarious watching Pete and Beto bow to Biden after running their campaigns almost entirely on being a new face/voice. I guess that’s why they’re in the spot there are now, having to endorse someone else for relevance. But Biden still faces an uphill challenge on Super Tuesday. He hasn’t spent much time in any of the states and didn’t have the money to spend there, hence the avalanche of endorsements and the constant coverage over the last 72 hours. Thankfully the Democratic establishment has learned from 2016 and backed the electable Joe Biden, a moderate Iraq War/Free Trade supporting candidate with questions involving corruption and who spends as little time outside as possible to avoid scandals/gaffes. What could possibly go wrong?
As always we’ll start with the state of the race in 1 picture:
Biden has the momentum after SC but after winning the first 3 contests and leading the fundraising, Bernie has the organizational edge in Super Tuesday states. If Bernie can open up a lead after today, Biden’s path to the nomination only comes from a brokered convention. If Biden can keep it close then it would solidly become a 2 person race as both would have a shot to get 51% of the delegates.
Here are some of the biggest things to look for:
The far and away biggest thing to look for is the number 15. You have to win at least 15% to get delegates in states, so it’ll be important to see how many of the states candidates are above that threshold.
California: The final numbers for California probably won’t be in for days, maybe weeks. 3 million votes have been cast already. The most important thing will be if Warren or Bloomberg can reach 15% and if they do it will shift 100s of delegates.
Texas: Texas seems like a toss-up with Biden going all in last night on the state. Bernie winning here would be big for him and he has gone hard for the Latino vote after winning the outright majority of Latinos in Nevada. Again look for whether a 3rd or even 4th person can get to 15.
Here’s a look at all the states/delegates up for grabs today:
Here’s a closer look at what to watch for, by candidate:
Bernie Sanders
People may disagree with me having Bernie as the sole frontrunner, but everyone is chasing him and he’s only chasing 51%. Bernie looks like the favorite in CA and a win there would be big but a more important things for him would be only 1 other person max hitting 15%. This could be the deciding factor of the race as if only Biden reaches 15 then Sanders would get an extra ~20% of the delegates than he would if anyone else reached 15. Texas is a state the Bernie campaign invested a lot in the Latino community. He dominated that vote in Nevada and might need a similar showing to win Texas. Can Bernie win in places like Colorado, Utah, Massachusetts, Minnesota? Can he win North Carolina, Virginia, or Oklahoma? Can he reach 15% in the Southern States? Bernie’s lead after all these states will define the race. A big lead may be insurmountable, a close lead means its a real race going forward.
Joe Biden
A good night for Biden is sweeping the South, winning Texas, NC, VA, and reaching 15% in California. Worst case for Joe is being the only one (besides Bernie) at 15% in CA, and only winning in the South (besides Texas). Look out for how Bloomberg does and if he seems to take away Biden support. Bloomberg finishing above 15% in only states Biden wins would hurt the former VP in his chase after Bernie. Good news for Biden is that he has a chance to make this officially a 2 person race after today. Bad news is he still has to debate with Bernie, where he’ll have to talk a lot more meaning he’ll have a lot more sentences to struggle to form…..plus his record still exists.
Elizabeth Warren
After watching candidates like Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar drop out, Elizabeth Warren has stayed in the race despite having done worse than both of them. Less than a week after going at SuperPACs, Warren got a SuperPAC that is helping her stay in the race. It seems like Warren is just trying to rack up as many delegates as she can on Super Tuesday, even though she might lose her home state to Bernie. It’s puzzling seeing Warren still in the race as she only has exactly 1 path to winning the nomination……which would be an attack or outbreak at the convention where Warren is the designated survivor. Other than that she has ZERO (0) chance of being the nominee, especially if she loses Massachusetts. Warren is doing a lot more harm to her reputation with progressives by staying in the race after everyone else dropped to back Biden. If she drops out after S.T. and endorsed Bernie that would help but if she gets 15% in places like CA or TX then she could do real damage to Bernie.
Michael Bloomberg
Michael Bloomberg’s campaign wasn’t looking good after his debate performances but now after a Biden resurgence, his campaign is not looking great at all. He still has all his billions which will do something but if he somehow manages to hit 15% in some states he could actually help Bernie by siphoning off some of Biden’s support. It’ll be interesting to see if Biden does well on Super Tuesday, if Bloomberg drops out and just puts all his cash behind Biden and launching anti-Bernie attack ads. If not, his path remains the same as it’s always been….buying the nomination at the convention.
If you go to a Bernie Sanders event you’ll hear hours upon hours worth of deep policy talk about income inequality, the importance of so many issues facing the country, and a need for systemic change. But all of that seems like overkill after seeing this 1 tik tok. This video is only 1 minute long but it should become the new central theme of the Sanders campaign in my humble (dumb) opinion.
A number like a billionaire is way too big for our dumb ape brains to even begin to comprehend. But seeing the scale of a billion visually like that in grains of rice is really eye-opening (no pun intended). You see stats that the top 3 people in the U.S have more wealth than the bottom 50% but that doesn’t really sink in until visual demonstrations like this. I don’t know how you watch that video and see how much money Jeff Bezos has (in grains of rice) and not want to support Bernie.
Bernie needs to hire this kid and bring this show on the road. Let this kid do his performance warm up the crowd with his pounds of rice and Bernie can cut his speeches down exponentially. Just walk up there and say “you think someone should have this amount of money while people sleep on the street, go bankrupt from medical care, have to ration their life-saving medicine because they can’t afford it, and an entire generation is being slowly strangled by student debt???? Couldn’t be me” and then drop the mic and hit the road to the next stop. Could easily double the amount of rallies he could do and would drive home his point better to more people than any hour and a half policy-centric speech ever could.
Today is the South Carolina Primary and it’s significant as if Biden loses his campaign is all but over while a Sanders win could all but end the race. Luckily for Biden he’s the favorite but still desperately needs momentum heading into Super Tuesday where 1/3 of the delegates are up for grabs. As always here’s the State of the Race right now in 1 picture to start:
Bernie Sanders enters as the sole frontrunner after going 3/3 to start the Primary season. A win here in South Carolina would seemingly end the race but even without a win, he could still pick up an insurmountable lead after Super Tuesday where he leads in states like California and Texas.
For Joe Biden the thing he needs most, beyond a win, is momentum. He needs to excite people in S.T. states and needs a lot of money for those contests. It might be too late for Biden already though as he’ll have to ramp up staff and organizing in these states in about 72 hours. Here’s a look at Biden’s operation on the ground in the biggest prize, California:
A foreboding sign for Biden's Super Tuesday ground game: Last Friday, his sole campaign office in California was padlocked shut. https://t.co/IFbnDdstTa
Even an idiot like me knows it’s probably not a good sign for a campaign when the sole campaign office in the state is padlocked shut on a Friday. (And that’s doesn’t even touch on the fact that he only has 1 office for the entire state of the California…..for comparison Bernie has 23). It’ll be interesting to see if a Biden wins allows him to take a lot of Bloomberg support on S.T. where 15% is needed to get delegates so the worst case scenario for everyone (but Bernie) is for Biden/Bloomberg to split votes and end up at 14% in a bunch of these states. This could happen in California which would officially give Sanders a metric fuck ton of delegates.
Back to South Carolina, which could also be the last stand for Tom Steyer and Tulsi Gabbard. Without a strong performance, both of these candidates should be out. Steyer has spent most of his money/time in South Carolina and he’s been in 3rd in the polls but he needs keep his support here after he failed to in Nevada. He did however have a hilarious clip go viral last night of him dancing on stage while Juvenile performs the classic “Back Dat Azz Up”
Presidential candidate Tom Steyer on stage with Juvenile dancing to “Back that Azz Up” last night in Columbia, South Carolina pic.twitter.com/8CFvVt0Nvn
If Steyer under-performs it won’t be due of a lack of electricity
Candidates like Elizabeth Warren. Amy Klobuchar, and Pete Buttigieg probably won’t do well in South Carolina but are relying on Super Tuesday. If any of them do surprisingly well it could give them a life-saving spark. Massachusetts and Minnesota vote on S.T. and if Warren and Klobuchar lose their home states that should be a wrap on their campaigns. It’s hard to convince people to keep giving you money (or that you could get the nomination at a brokered convention) if you can’t even win your home state. Mayor Pete has been doing his best Obama cosplay so far but still has yet to attract support from people of color. I guess his message of a new face for old ideas isn’t catching on as well as his consultants/focus groups hoped.
Pete 2020
Michael Bloomberg isn’t on the ballot in South Carolina but I’m sure he’d like to see a big Biden win. Yes they would share a lot of support in S.T. states but it seems like Bloomberg’s only play is a contested convention and that can’t happen unless him and someone else get above the 15% needed to win delegates.
It seems we’re getting to a point where everyone, but Bernie, thinks their only chance is at a contested convention….If you wanna read how a brokered convention would be the worse thing to happen to the Democratic Party, click here.
Now there has been a stir-up recently over decades old comments Bernie Sanders made about Fidel Castro in which he lauded the Cuban literacy program. Now some people wrote this off as one small compliment in a sea of condemnation or pointed to Barack Obama saying the same thing just a few years ago….but those people are wrong. Bernie Sanders has decades long record of supporting and claiming to love authoritarian countries. First I’ll show you how he supports Castro using logic:
Now if you’re not convinced by that impeccable #Logic then I’ll give you another example. Bernie is definitively a fan of one of the biggest authoritarian countries in the world. This country has the biggest prison population in the world, per capita, has a history of discrimination against minorities, has a history of not only interfering in other countries’ elections but a history of overthrowing leaders and has just recently assassinated a top foreign official. And Bernie’s support of this country is unquestionable, not only because of his positions and statements but by his actions as well………because he is a member of this country’s government.
That’s right Bernie Sanders is a fan of the United States of America. Not only that, he claims to love the country. This is a country where he has spent decades in government. So it should be pretty clear to everyone now that Sanders is a big fan of authoritarian nations. It’s simple to see and anyone who denies this reality is either biased or has some galaxy brain while the true patriots (and those who don’t understand sarcasm) know that Bernie is an authoritarian’s #1 Stan.
District of Clowns 