Today’s the day everyone predicted would narrow the field, Super Tuesday, where 1/3 of the delegates are up for grabs….except that consolidation has already happened. 3 people dropped out after SC and the establishment has thrown everything behind Joe Biden. They must’ve offered up something big to get Amy Klobuchar to drop out 24 hours before likely getting her 1st Primary win. Mayor Pete also dropped out and endorsed Biden and even Beto was brought back into the fold. It’s hilarious watching Pete and Beto bow to Biden after running their campaigns almost entirely on being a new face/voice. I guess that’s why they’re in the spot there are now, having to endorse someone else for relevance. But Biden still faces an uphill challenge on Super Tuesday. He hasn’t spent much time in any of the states and didn’t have the money to spend there, hence the avalanche of endorsements and the constant coverage over the last 72 hours. Thankfully the Democratic establishment has learned from 2016 and backed the electable Joe Biden, a moderate Iraq War/Free Trade supporting candidate with questions involving corruption and who spends as little time outside as possible to avoid scandals/gaffes. What could possibly go wrong?

As always we’ll start with the state of the race in 1 picture:

Biden has the momentum after SC but after winning the first 3 contests and leading the fundraising, Bernie has the organizational edge in Super Tuesday states. If Bernie can open up a lead after today, Biden’s path to the nomination only comes from a brokered convention. If Biden can keep it close then it would solidly become a 2 person race as both would have a shot to get 51% of the delegates.

Here are some of the biggest things to look for:

• The far and away biggest thing to look for is the number 15. You have to win at least 15% to get delegates in states, so it’ll be important to see how many of the states candidates are above that threshold.
• California: The final numbers for California probably won’t be in for days, maybe weeks. 3 million votes have been cast already. The most important thing will be if Warren or Bloomberg can reach 15% and if they do it will shift 100s of delegates.
• Texas: Texas seems like a toss-up with Biden going all in last night on the state. Bernie winning here would be big for him and he has gone hard for the Latino vote after winning the outright majority of Latinos in Nevada. Again look for whether a 3rd or even 4th person can get to 15.
• Here’s a look at all the states/delegates up for grabs today:

Here’s a closer look at what to watch for, by candidate:

Bernie Sanders

People may disagree with me having Bernie as the sole frontrunner, but everyone is chasing him and he’s only chasing 51%. Bernie looks like the favorite in CA and a win there would be big but a more important things for him would be only 1 other person max hitting 15%. This could be the deciding factor of the race as if only Biden reaches 15 then Sanders would get an extra ~20% of the delegates than he would if anyone else reached 15. Texas is a state the Bernie campaign invested a lot in the Latino community. He dominated that vote in Nevada and might need a similar showing to win Texas. Can Bernie win in places like Colorado, Utah, Massachusetts, Minnesota? Can he win North Carolina, Virginia, or Oklahoma? Can he reach 15% in the Southern States? Bernie’s lead after all these states will define the race. A big lead may be insurmountable, a close lead means its a real race going forward.

Joe Biden

A good night for Biden is sweeping the South, winning Texas, NC, VA, and reaching 15% in California. Worst case for Joe is being the only one (besides Bernie) at 15% in CA, and only winning in the South (besides Texas). Look out for how Bloomberg does and if he seems to take away Biden support. Bloomberg finishing above 15% in only states Biden wins would hurt the former VP in his chase after Bernie. Good news for Biden is that he has a chance to make this officially a 2 person race after today. Bad news is he still has to debate with Bernie, where he’ll have to talk a lot more meaning he’ll have a lot more sentences to struggle to form…..plus his record still exists.

Elizabeth Warren

After watching candidates like Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar drop out, Elizabeth Warren has stayed in the race despite having done worse than both of them. Less than a week after going at SuperPACs, Warren got a SuperPAC that is helping her stay in the race. It seems like Warren is just trying to rack up as many delegates as she can on Super Tuesday, even though she might lose her home state to Bernie. It’s puzzling seeing Warren still in the race as she only has exactly 1 path to winning the nomination……which would be an attack or outbreak at the convention where Warren is the designated survivor. Other than that she has ZERO (0) chance of being the nominee, especially if she loses Massachusetts. Warren is doing a lot more harm to her reputation with progressives by staying in the race after everyone else dropped to back Biden. If she drops out after S.T. and endorsed Bernie that would help but if she gets 15% in places like CA or TX then she could do real damage to Bernie.

Michael Bloomberg

Michael Bloomberg’s campaign wasn’t looking good after his debate performances but now after a Biden resurgence, his campaign is not looking great at all. He still has all his billions which will do something but if he somehow manages to hit 15% in some states he could actually help Bernie by siphoning off some of Biden’s support. It’ll be interesting to see if Biden does well on Super Tuesday, if Bloomberg drops out and just puts all his cash behind Biden and launching anti-Bernie attack ads. If not, his path remains the same as it’s always been….buying the nomination at the convention.

FINALLY there were some fireworks on the debate stage, they started early and never really stopped. We had Warren vs. Everyone, Everyone vs. Bloomberg, Bernie vs. Pete, Pete vs. Amy. Gut reaction Bernie Sanders is the winner, not because he had the best performance (he didn’t) but because Bloomberg & Biden would’ve been better served not showing up at all and because Warren, Pete, & Amy went at each other a lot. This is by far the most likely debate to shift the race as I could see it hurting Bloomberg and it will definitely shake-up the Pete/Amy/Warren tier. My gut take rankings on each person’s performance goes:

1. Warren
2. Sanders
4. Amy
5. Pete
7. Biden
8. Bloomberg

Warren went scorched earth on nearly everyone tonight and if she’s gonna get results it’ll be because of a performance like that. Bernie is also a winner cause he handled himself well while letting everyone else fight it out. Pete and Amy both had decent debates but I’m putting Amy first because 1. it was hilarious that you could tell Amy was envisioning hitting Pete with anything and everything she had on the podium all night and 2. her line saying something like he just memorizes talking points because he lacks real experience was by far the best line either of them had all night. Bloomberg obviously last because…well you saw it…..and if you didn’t just imagine everyone going for the jugular off the jump, him getting booed, and well just basically worst case scenario. NBC’s weren’t as bad as I assumed but still waiting for the Democratic Debates have questions framed from a left-wing perspective. Maybe next time

Random Thoughts

Michael Bloomberg made his debut tonight and was immediately attacked by everyone on the stage. They went after him over stop & frisk, sexual harassment, buying his way into the race, supporting Bush, being against Obamacare, the list goes on and on. But i think what hurt him the most when Warren and Biden went after him on the NDAs. They (rightly) called out that Bloomberg could release these people from the NDAs and all he had to say was he was protecting a consensual contract or some nonsense like that. Bloomberg was getting shit on all night and if you remember that the he bought his way onto the stage….that means tonight was officially the most he’s ever spent to get shit on………..since his last trip to Epstein’s Island of course.

The other big story of the night was Elizabeth Warren going nuclear. Mike Bloomberg is the best thing to ever happen to her campaign. I don’t know why she doesn’t have this same energy all the time. She’s at her best when she’s going after corruption not when she’s picking stupid fights. Her campaign is still in trouble but she might’ve done enough to get the results she needs in Nevada and South Carolina. But if she doesn’t, at least she went down kamikaze style and left everything out on the stage and that makes me like/respect her more.

Joe Biden needed some of the energy Warren had tonight. He is making his last stand in South Carolina and he disappeared multiple times in the debate. (I still can’t believe I lost my bet for Biden least speaking time) He only had a few moments today where he looked lost mid sentence, which is a solid night on the Biden Curve, but besides attacking Bloomberg early he had nothing close to memorable. After that performance, it looks like he’s in danger of not finish top 2/3 in Nevada and that could end up killing his campaign before he can make his “last stand”.

Bernie Sanders clearly dislikes Mayor Pete and he does not hide it well. He loves pointing out Pete’s billionaire donors and how it affects his positions. It seems like an effective attack and Pete even showed his hypocrisy on stage multiple times. He’s said he thinks its smart for Bernie to embrace democratic socialism, praised Denmark tonight (a model country for many of Sanders’ plans) but also in the same debate talks about how worried he is about the electability of socialism and how bad/divisive Sanders’ plans are. Sanders/Warren would be well served to keep attacking Pete over his donors and his hypocrisy….It must hurt Pete to have his high school hero have visible disdain for him…but I know, between Bernie and Amy, it gave Pete some PTSD tonight cause it looked like he was at risk of being shoved into a locker numerous times tonight.

There was a lot of words flying back and forth between Warren, Pete & Amy which makes sense since they are fighting for survival to and past Super Tuesday. When I wrote the debate preview I compared the race between these 3 to a scene in The Dark Knight when the Joker does some recruiting and I don’t mean to pat myself on the back toooo hard buttttt I think it’s a near perfect comparison.

The questions for the debate weren’t as bad as I was expecting but of course there was the mandatory fear-mongering over socialism. Sanders gave a good rebuttal talking about socialism for the rich and I have seen him give better answers when he has more time. Plus it doesn’t seem to be too big an issue since he won the 1st 2 contests, leads in the polls, and 70% of people in exit polls in IA & NH supported Medicare For All. As much as it physically hurts me to type this (and I never thought I’d say this)……..I have to give Chuck Todd credit for a good question. Please stop booing…..Don’t get me wrong….he still sucks. But when he asked about a contested convention it was verrrryyyyy telling that every other candidate besides Bernie was cool with superdelegates choosing the nominee. After 2016 you’d think every candidate would want less of the DNC involved, less superdelegates but apparently not. It’s almost as if they see that as their only chance to win.

Tonight 6 Democratic Candidates will take the stage in Nevada for the reality TV show debate hosted by NBC. Now for this debate preview you, the reader, have several options because here at DoC we cater to those of every learning style. If you hate reading, you’re in luck cause we’ll start with the state of the race in 1 picture. If you like lists, then keep reading because we also have the 6 biggest storylines going into the debate. Keep reading after that if you’re looking for more insightful thoughts (or if you’re just a masochist). If you somehow make it through all that, your reward is a betting guide at the bottom. So just think of this as Dante’s Inferno but for debate coverage…..(which itself would be in about the 7th circle of hell in Dante’s version).

The Primary in 1 Pic

5 Biggest Debate Storylines

1. Bernie Sanders: Now that he’s the sole frontrunner it’ll be interesting to see how he’s treated. The moderators will likely attack him and his policies like usual but will the candidates go after him. The debates so far have lacked a lot of attacking or edge but this could be the one that turns the tide especially with people like Warren and Biden desperate.
2. Mike Bloomberg’s Debut: After purchasing his way onto the debate stage, we will see how Bloomberg does. Hopefully everyone goes after him so we can have some actual intrigue on the stage for once.
3. Price for a Spot on the Stage: Another Bloomberg storyline has been exposing just how much it costs to buy off the DNC. Now any billionaire (or lowly millionaire with nothing better to do) knows the price to get themselves on a democratic debate stage. Instead of spending money on staff or bus tours or whatever the fuck else…Cory Booker, Julian Castro, John Delaney, etc. should’ve used their money to stay on the stage. Something to remember for 2024 I guess.
4. Biden’s Articulation: Now some people are saying that Biden biggest struggle is connecting with voters but in debates, it’s undeniably his ability to form complete/coherent thoughts. If he has trouble doing that tonight the end might be around the corner as more and more of his donors jump ship for the U.S.S. Oligarch Bloomberg.
5. Warren’ Strategy: Not too long ago the media was ready to crown Warren but now her campaign is in trouble. After a decent performance in Iowa she embarrassed in NH where she couldn’t even get 10%. She entered the race as a progressive going hard after corruption but has now seemingly pivoted to the “woke” SJW lane. Look out for who Warren goes after. Look to see if the “unity” candidate makes any attacks tonight (and on who).
6. Pete & Amy: Both of these Midwestern moderates are in the same position of having campaigns that are like goat yoga classes…..in that they are almost exclusively supported by rich white people. Both need to attract voters of color and without that it’s hard to see either of their campaign trajectories going up. Again it will be interesting to see if they attack each other, focus on Bernie, try to end Biden, or haze the newbie Bloomberg.

More Thoughts

Ironically, the media has helped Bernie Sanders tremendously. By constanlty ignoring or demeaning him they have allowed him to somehow be the frontunner and an underdog at the same time. Meanwhile the rest of the field is fractured which could allow Bernie to lock this thing up sooner rather than later. It’s hilarious watching how desperate the media has become. They have used the electability/socialism smears for over 4 years on Bernie and he’s withstood that. After throwing so much at the wall the only thing they have left right now is that his supporters are mean online. Now if you’re unfamiliar with the American news media this is your crash-course on why they’ve lost the respect and trust of the public. There are seemingly infinite problems in the world yet the media finds time to cover the breaking news that some people are assholes online. But of course there are only 2 reasons it gets coverage. 1. They do not like Bernie. 2. People are being mean to them. They miss the good ol’ days where they were respected as authorities, could make or break candidates at their whim and could delude themselves into thinking their position/salary were deserved. But now they face the harsh reality that real people don’t care what they have to say and can just go online and tell them to fuck off and take their shitty takes elsewhere. I will give MSNBC credit though, they had a clip before NH which was maybe the funniest moment of the campaign so far. A woman who was torn between multiple candidates, told them that she was pushed over the edge to vote for Bernie because of how bad/biased the MSNBC coverage of Bernie was.

This debate is also notable because it will be the first appearance for Michael Bloomberg after the billionaire paid off the DNC to change the rules. I have mixed feelings about this. Overall I’m Team #FuckBloomberg, but it is objectively hilarious to see just how much it costs to buy off the DNC. (Honestly Bernie Sanders should just start a grassroots fundraiser to buyout the Democratic leadership. He could raise enough money to get Tom Perez to resign in less than 24 hours) But I am glad to see Bloomberg on the stage so people realize he’s more than just a guy who bombards you with ads. In reality he’s a 5’5 (former Republican) Oligarch with a record of terrible policies, quotes, and behavior. Yes he has used his fortune to advance some good causes…but he could also just continue to do that instead of wasting that money on a vain Presidential run. Joe Biden needs to come out and show he can do more than namedrop Obama and talk about winning hypothetical elections. It would also help if his teeth didn’t almost fall out of his mouth, his eye doesn’t start randomly bleeding, or if he didn’t tell everyone to vote for someone else (something he apparently loves to do).Warren, Pete, & Amy are people who should be on the attack as I don’t see any way all 3 of them are still in the race after Super Tuesday. They could all gang up on Bernie or Bloomberg, or they could try and put Uncle Joe out of his misery, or backstage it could be like that seen from The Dark Knight where the Joker (in this case Tom Perez) drops a broken pool stick down on the floor in front of them and says there’s only room for one of them (my money would be on Amy in that).

Betting Guide

Anywhere on the Internet you can find shitty takes on politics. It is a rarity that you will find a place that will give you shitty political takes and shitty betting tips. As usual with these betting guides, all lines come from Predict-It which lets you buys “shares” of candidates so I will give you the share price as well as a more traditional line.

Most Speaking Time: Right now Bloomberg and Bernie are the favorites at around 40 cents (about +150). I will probably sprinkle a little bit on both of those guys as I think there probably gonna get it. If you like anyone else they have great odds (My pick out of the rest would be Warren at 9 Cents (+900).

Least Speaking Time: Right now the favorite is Klobuchar at 35 cents (+186) with Warren a close 2nd at 30 cents (+233). My pick would probably be Amy but I hate picking all favorites so I’ll go with Biden at 15 cents (+560).

# of Candidates who say “Billionaire”: This is a lock for at least 2 (Bernie/Warren) and with Bloomberg on the stage I think everyone will say the word billionaire at some point, so I’m gonna take 6 for 20 cents (+400). I might also sprinkle some cash on 5 just in case at 27 cents (~+300).

Non-Debate Bets: As I’ve been saying for months I’m still betting on Bernie to win the nomination. He’s somehow even odds at this point so I might throw some more $$$ on him tonight with my winnings. I’d also bet on him to win SC (about the same odds). I’d also look to bet on 2nd place in SC. If Biden collapses, someone like Steyer, Peter, or Warren could slide up into 2nd place and they all have great odds right now.