Final State of the Race Before Iowa

The voting for the 2020 Primary will finally tonight when the Iowa Caucuses happen. While they aren’t many delegates up for grabs, Iowa is all about momentum. A win will give someone a lot of media coverage while a bad performance may finally kill off some campaigns. Here’s my latest tier of the race as it stands now:

The media has started to freak out as they realize that Bernie Sanders is not only a frontrunner but is a favorite to win the first two contests. Now their desperation is showing as they try to bring up old Bernie quotes or smearing people that support him like Joe Rogan or when *NSFW* Rashida Tlaib booed Hillary Clinton. This couples with the 5 year “electability” argument they’ve been firing at Sanders. First off nobody knows what is electable (especially rich, out of touch talking heads). In 2008 Barrack Obama was “unelectable” and the entire 2016 Primary/General these same people said Trump could never get elected. Pro-tip, if someone tries to tell you what is or isn’t electable….they’re full of shit. But the media has continued to push a Biden=electable, Bernie=unelectable narrative through the whole primary. Now instead of trying to convince you why that’s wrong, I’ll just give you a blind resume let you decide.

Candidate A: old white guy Candidate B: older white guy

Now let’s look at each candidate as well as look at their path to the nomination:

Bernie Sanders

The Media overlooked the Vermont Senator in 2016, somewhat understandably, but these same people are too smart to make the same mistake again right??? The answer is obviously no….but you probably already knew that. Sanders has raised the most money, thanks to the largest grassroots support of donors, and seems to have most of the energy in the party behind him, all while remaining steady in the polls for a year despite continuous claims he should drop out, his campaign was doomed, or would never win. So nice to see people in the media learning from 2016. There’s been rumblings of a Never-Bernie movement forming which will surely work and not have the same effect as the Never Trump movement did right? But hey if history repeats itself all those people will be safe with cushy jobs as talking heads on MSNBC.
Path To Nomination: A win in either Iowa or New Hampshire should be good enough to carry him into Super Tuesday where he has a lead in a bunch of states (including California). A win in Nevada or South Carolina would be icing on the cake. If he wins both IA & NH it could be over as no one in modern history has won both and not won the nomination.

Joe Biden

Joe Biden’s campaign at the moment has one thing going for it….inertia. While his national poll numbers have remained fairly steady, his fundraising hasn’t been as evidenced by his need for a SuperPAC. Biden has run an unconventional campaign but its one that is similar to Trump’s in that nothing seems capable of taking him down. In debates he’s had his eye start randomly bleeding, his teeth almost fall out of his mouth, and struggle to form coherent answers to questions. Everytime a voter asks a tough or critical question he tells them to vote for someone else….or he calls them fat and challenges them to a push-up contest. He sucked his wife’s finger on stage. His campaign staff are giving handjobs to strangers on planes. Instead of answering questions on Social Security he gave the press a piece of paper with his answers on it. You couldn’t make this stuff up and its all been hilarious but somehow it hasn’t lost him any support. People have said he doesn’t need to win Iowa or New Hampshire and can rely on South Carolina but the NYT had a (rare) insightful piece on this. Biden has taken money from NH & SC to focus heavily on Iowa. The danger for Biden is if he doesn’t do well there his well of wealthy donor cash might dry up and he might not have the funds in SC or elsewhere.
Path to the Nomination: A win in Iowa would be huge for the Biden campaign (and to a lesser extent) as would a Pete victory. The biggest thing for Biden is to convince enough people that he’s still viable so he can get cash to compete like a frontrunner on Super Tuesday. A 3rd or 4th place finish in Iowa might be a death sentence for the Biden campaign as the moderates/establishment might pin all their hopes(& cash) to Bloomberg.

Elizabeth Warren

Senator Warren seemed like a favorite a few months ago when she made a surge in the polls. Since then, her coverage in the media has gone down and she’s had a few slip-ups handling some keys issues. She seemed to backtrack a little on Medicare For All to appeal to moderates but seems to have landed in no (wo)man’s land with neither side thrilled about her. She also has been very cautious about attacking Biden either on corruption (though its a central theme to her campaign) Social Security, or the Bankruptcy Bill (which she battled him on when she wan’t in Congress yet). She seems to be trying to go all in on the woke liberal/social justice warrior/unity lane and we’ll soon see if that was the right choice. She’s the most interesting candidate to keep an eye on after the first couple contests. If Bernie comes out hot does she try to pick up Biden voters and if Biden holds strong does how will she try to win some of Bernie’s people?
Path to Nomination: Warren has a similar path to Bernie as a win in one of the first 2 should be enough to carry her past Super Tuesday. A strong 2nd in both of those could also keep her in the race but a 3rd place finish in one of them (especially NH) could be the beginning of the end.

Pete Buttigieg

The former small-town mayor has risen thanks to support from the media as well as wealthy donors. In Iowa he took that money and blanketed the state which lead to him being in the top 4 there. Pete seems like someone built in a CIA lab to become a politician. He’s got a boyish charm that has appealed to old folks, went to Harvard, and was a Rhodes Scholar. However, Pete does not seem to pose a real threat thanks to lack of support among people of color….leading to his nickname Mayo Pete. In South Bend, there has been controversy over a police shooting as well as a scheme by cops to use Pete’s donors to fire the city’s first black police chief (something he did). He also faced criticism for faking black endorsements in SC for his “Douglas Plan”. Thanks to all of his, plus his overall demeanor, it seems unlikely Pete will catch on among people of color meaning his chances of the nomination are slim. The desperation is showing from Pete as in the last few days he’s been calling out both Biden and Bernie by name in Iowa. He’s also accused Bernie of using “dark money” groups to help him which is funny on 2 accounts…first this attack is coming from someone famous for raising money from rich people in wine cave and 2nd because he tried to get support from most of these groups including the Sunrise Movement, other student groups, and the Democratic Socialists of America. It’s not surprising though as Pete seems like the kind guy who gets rejected and then turns around and says I didn’t even wanna go out with you at all..you’re ugly and then proceeds to rage-cry in the bathroom.
Path to the Nomination: A win in Iowa followed by a 1st or 2nd place finish in NH and then either someone catching on with voters of color or winning 100% of the white vote.

Amy Klobuchar

The media has been working hard to push Senator Klobuchar and it seems she may finally be catching on. She’s running her campaign based on the 3 M’s, Midwest Nice, Moderation, & Mom-jokes. Because of this, her campaign also seems to hinge on Iowa. If her Midwest appeal doesn’t work in Iowa it’s unlikely to work anywhere else. If she does well though she could stand to pick up some Biden, Pete, or even Warren supporters if any of the them fall. If Klobuchar somehow ends up President it will be a number of firsts. She will of course be the first female President, along with the first President from Minnesota, and the first President whose ever eaten a salad with a comb….and I’m not sure which of those firsts would be most impressive.
Path to Nomination: Strong finish in Iowa and able to use that to siphon off votes from top 4 heading into Super Tuesday. Anything lower than top 5 in Iowa might be the end for Amy. Most likely scenario is she can hang on long enough and maybe score a cabinet position in a Biden administration.

Andrew Yang

Andrew Yang has been one of the surprises of the campaign as even though he’s been largely ignored by the media, while outlasting Governors, Senators, and Congressman. Thanks to the #YangGang his online following has raised some impressive numbers and kept him on the debate stage. The big sticking point for Yang has been his Universal Basic Income proposal (the Freedom Dividend as he calls it) which would give everyone over 18 $1,000 a month. Beyond offering people free money, Yang has been able to appeal to people by attacking the status quo in Washington and appealing to people’s humanity as well as their wallets. He is one of the only candidates who talks at length about automation, the decline in life expectancy, and the drug crisis. Yang has brought these under-discussed issues to the mainstream, and because he seems honest, and not like a politician, he has appealed to people all over the spectrum. He has also recently picked up endorsements of comedy greats Dave Chapelle and Norm McDonald. Though it is unlikely to end in the White House, Yang has made more of an impact of the race than the vast majority of candidates.
Path to Nomination: Get a shocking performance in an early state and use that to pick off voters of the falling candidates. More likely scenario is that he will end up somewhere in a Sanders or Warren cabinet.

Tulsi Gabbard

Representative Gabbard is by far the most controversial candidate still left in the race. The cornerstone of her campaign is that she is a veteran but also staunchly anti-interventionist. This coupled with her outsider status has given her some support in New Hampshire where she is around 5% in the RCP average. Her back and forth with Hillary Clinton has seemed to help her as many people, especially with those who don’t like the DNC/corporate Democrats. Gabbard’s future relies heavily on the state of New Hampshire. A good performance there would get her back on the debate stage and momentum going forward. If she doesn’t do well in NH it would seem like the end of the road for the least hardest to look at candidate in the race.
Path to Nomination: New Hampshire or bust. More likely scenario is a position in a Sanders administration or maybe a Fox News gig.

Tom Steyer

Tom Steyer is one of 2 billionaires in the race and has been able to gain support by bombarding the airwaves with over $100 million in ads. In a vacuum Steyer isn’t a bad candidate and I’ve actually weirdly started to like him after multiple awkward encounters where Bernie wants nothing to do with him. I just don’t think the Democrats will want to nominate a billionaire and once other people start spending money in Nevada and South Carolina I’m not sure he’ll maintain his support. I’m not sold on the idea that he has any real support or if people are just saying his name to pollsters because he’s the only person they see on TV/billboards.
Path to Nomination: $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Michael Bloomberg

The other billionaire is former NYC Governor Michael Bloomberg. It’s hard to see Bloomberg actually getting the nomination given he supported George W. Bush, supported the Iraq War as well as stop & frisk until he got in the race, and most importantly the incredibly concerning way he greets dogs by shaking their snout. The whole play by Bloomberg seems to be to swoop into the moderate lane if Biden falls. Again though I don’t see people supporting a creepy billionaire with positions like “bankers are getting a bad rap”. Plus there’s always the question of “if you really wanted to help people, instead of wasting hundreds of millions of dollars on a vanity campaign why not spend that money down ballot or use it to idk replace lead water pipes around the country, give it to underfunded schools, pay off some student debts, protect some endangered animal, or literally anything beside put your face on TV seemingly every other commercial.
Path to the Nomination: Ideally none…..but realistically if Biden falls a lot of moderates/media will flock to him to save them from big bad Bernie.

If you’re interested in making the primary a little more interesting….I’ve included my betting advice below:

You can find shitty 2020 Primary punditry pretty much anywhere you look, but very few places will also give you shitty betting advice. So without anymore foreplay, I’ll lay out where you should look to put some money before the Primary begins in Iowa. All odds will come from Predict-It where you can buy or sell “stock” in candidates for the Primary, General Election, or in individual Primaries.

Now for months, I’ve been telling anyone that will listen to bet on Bernie as I’ve thought he was under valued and I got $ on him to win the nomination at 10/1 (not to brag) and I wish I doubled down post-heart attack when I saw his odds at 16/1. Now he is the favorite with his price being 41 cents (~+150) with Biden at 33 cents (~+200) and everyone else are long shots. My advice would still be to bet Bernie as I think, barring any more heart-attacks, he has the momentum to win Iowa and New Hampshire and eventually win the whole thing. If you’re looking for someone with better odds I would look at Warren, Bloomberg, and Yang (in that order) as when the field begins to shrink (and if Biden falls or loses the rest of his motor skills) those 3 could gain the most so buy low now.

As for the individual contests, in Iowa I would bet Warren or Pete as they’re both around 10 cents (+900) and those are by far the best odds for what’s been a 4 way race in Iowa for a while. There’s good odds in New Hampshire for anyone that isn’t Bernie, so if you’re as scared of socialism as every pundit thinks than that would be something to look at. In South Carolina, Biden is the favorite there right now but if you think he falls, like I still do, then someone like Bernie at 25 cents (+300) or if you wanna get crazy, Tom Steyer, at 2 cents (5000/1) or Andrew Yang (same odds), if you think there’ll be a Chappelle bump. For all the other primaries on Super Tuesday, since it’s still early either Bernie or Biden are favorites. If you think one of them will fall then there’s good odds to bet the other one, and if you think both could fall the other candidates have great odds.

Overall, the markets see this as a 2 person race between Bernie and Biden. This makes betting options seem a lot simpler. There’s the obviously ideological gap between them as well as the huge age divide of their supporters. If you think the young energetic progressive wing of the party will win then bet Bernie (or even people like Warren or Bloomberg). If you think the old, moderate establishment wing of the party will win then take Biden (or Warren, in case Bernie falls off).

2020 Primary Betting Guide

This Week in News

No better way to split up the week than by looking back on some of the last week of news. Some of the bigger things that happened (impeachment/ Israel/Palestine proposal) will have their own blogs…. but we’ll look at an update from the Iranian Strike, Joe Biden’s weird campaign habits, Mike Bloombrg not knowing how to pet a dog, CNN shunning Tulsi Gabbard, and the Media Clown of the Week along with Biggest Joke Story of the week.

Most Under-Covered Story of the Week: At least 50 total service members suffered Brain injuries after Iran missile attack

After President Trump assassinated Iranian General Solemaini, Iran responded with missile attacks at a U.S base in Iraq. Initially there were no casualties reported but now there is reportedly a total of 50 people who have been treated for traumatic brain injuries. Thankfully a lot of those have not been too serious and many of those who were affected are back on duty. It’s still crazy to see how little this is being covered in the news especially since the Trump administration has yet to back up their “imminent threat” explanation and when the President suggested 4 embassies were being targeted….his Defense Secretary immediately that shot down. But when you think about it, it’s really not shocking it hasn’t been covered when you think of the influence of the Military Industrial Complex, the bipartisan war consensus, or the desensitizing of drone strikes. So why would a media that loves to fear-monger and applaud conflict cover something that could damage that and only caused the same amount of concussions that happen every NFL Sunday.

CNN excludes Tulsi Gabbard from townhalls

CNN announced it would be holding townhalls in New Hampshire in early February….just a few days before the primary there. Obviously it included the top 3 candidates (Sanders, Biden, Warren) as well as the other 4 candidates who have qualified for the Feb debate (Pete, Klobuchar, Yang, Steyer) but it also strangely includes Deval Patrick and does not include Tulsi Gababrd. Now while Gabbard hasn’t made the last 2 debates, she’s polling at 5% in New Hampshire….which is more than Yang, double Steyer and Patrick is so low in the polling that RCP doesn’t even have his average listed. If CNN only included people who made the debates, Gabbard still has a gripe but it’s not newsworthy…. unless they arbitrarily add a guy that has generated such buzz and support that a poll with him at 1% is flattering. Also worth CNN is denying the only woman of color still in the race a chance to make her case, so by Media logic, CNN are clearly racists and sexist if they exclude Gabbard. It’s been clear for a while that the media is biased against, Gabbard but CNN hosting 8 candidates in NH and not including the 6th highest poller in the state just puts it out there so even Helen Keller could see it. This “impartial network” has yet to respond to the criticism from Gabbard & others about this.

Joe Biden Keeps Telling Voters to Vote for Someone Else

The former Vice President has run one of the strangest campaigns of anyone so far. From having his eye nearly explode or his teeth almost fall out in the debates, to sucking his wife’s finger on stage at a rally, to lying about his record on Iraq & Social Security. Biden has also at times struggled to form complete sentences or coherent thoughts but somehow his support remains solid as a rock (someone should test him for the PEDs Larry David was on). But one of the stranger things Biden has done is tell any person who asks even a mildly tough or critical question to just vote for a different candidate. Almost everything Biden has done so far from his “No Malarkey Bus” to talking about record players & Venezuela in a question about race relations to calling a voter fat and challenging him to a pushup contest has been so weird and funny it doesn’t need any more commentary.

Back in September, a reporter asked Biden to make his case to skeptical voters.

"I'm not going to," he responded.

And he hasn't. pic.twitter.com/UwbqsKwh0G
— Walker Bragman (@WalkerBragman) January 28, 2020

The DNC Announces its Committee Member for 2020 Convention

Tom Perez and the DNC did a little Saturday night news dump when they announced their committee members for the 2020 convention. Now I don’t know why they did that as no one does/should care about this news. There are the normal people you’d expect the DNC to appoint….lobbyists, health-care executives, defense contractors, big donors, etc. This seems like standard business for the DNC but it wouldn’t be news if it was just those people. Nope the DNC has shoot themselves in the foot by adding someone so ridiculous that this gets attention…..John Podesta. Yes the same John Podesta of “Podesta Leaked Emails” fame. Somehow after 2016 this is someone they not only wanna associate with publicly but put onto their rules committee. Just when you think the Democrats can’t be any stupider they continue to boggle the mind with things like this.

NYT keeps changing Bernie Sanders Headlines

The Twitter account @NYT_diff is a bot that keeps tracks when the New York Times changes a headline or article and occasionally it shows some funny/weird changes. This week there were 3 different stories on Bernie Sanders that had the headline changed after publication. Since almost everyone just gets their news solely from the headline today, it no doubt can have an effect. Last Wednesday the Times published a story, “Bernie Sanders has Narrowed Lead in New National Poll” which was seemingly too positive for NYT so they changed it to “Why Bernie Went on the Attack Against Joe Biden”. The next day the story “Stop Comparing Bernie to Trump. It’s Ridiculous.” comes out so another change was made so the story became “Please Stop Calling Bernie Sanders a Populist”. Now just yesterday the Times put out “The Bernie Juggernaut” which, you guessed it, was changed to “Bernie Could Win the Nomination. Should We Be Afraid?”. Now no one reading this is surprised the NYT aren’t the biggest Bernie fans but its still funny seeing them change any headline with a positive slant towards him to a negative one. No one should think of Bernie as narrowing the lead or as different than Trump or a juggernaut…..No he’s attacking or not really a populist or must be feared. In reality the only people that should should fear Bernie are the NYT and the rest of the establishment and it’s funny watching how they react to that fear.

Bolivia Update

Some of you might not remember the coup in Bolivia that happened recently where most of the media cheerleaded the effort in the name of “free and fair elections”. Well today an article came out where the interim President is going back on their promise not to run in the new election while also actively trying to get the candidate from the former President (Evo Morales)’s party out of the race. Now obviously in a world filled with consistent, value-driven pundits (crazy I know) those same people would be outraged over this too but alas since the left-wing leader is out of power they’ll just chalk it up as another U.S victory in South America. #Democracy

Michael Bloomberg Meets a Dog

A video came out where Michael Bloomberg grabs and shakes a dog’s snout. Yes you read that right…he tried to shake a dog’s mouth like it was a hand. There’s really nothing else to add. It’s simply one of the weirdest human/dog interactions of all time….and it wasn’t the first time he’s done it.

While campaigning in Vermont yesterday, Michael Bloomberg met a dog – and shook its snout https://t.co/zhK9QC4Rm9 pic.twitter.com/IoFPys7S8k
— CBS News (@CBSNews) January 28, 2020

Absolutely Disqualifying Behavior

Has this guy pet a dog before? Is he a real human??

Media Clown of the Week

This week’s winner is…..Washington Post Writer Jennifer Rubin. On Monday she dropped a new column about how Bernie’s “Trump-like campaign” would be a disaster for Democrats. First let’s put aside the facts that the last Trump-like Presidential campaign won and that Rubin is a Republican giving Democrats advice. Some of that great advice she’s given has been praising Kamala Harris, Beto O’Rourke, and Steve Bullock (RIP to all 3 of their campaigns). Rubin is also someone who admitted to misleading readers by writing biased columns in favor of Mitt Romney in 2012. Somehow she gets paid to do the same thing, along with the other garbage she put outs via her mouth and/or fingers. But obviously it’s a conspiracy theory to question the Washington Post for biases at all. I am thankful for people like Rubin though in one respect. You can always look to her and others like Chris Cilizza and know that whatever the say….the opposite will probably be true.

Biggest Joke of a Story

TYFYS Washington Post for thinking of Anti-Semites

I refuse to click on this article for many reasons but mainly because the only acceptable answer to the question is who fucking cares.

Democratic Debate Recap

Tonight’s debate, the last one before voting starts, was honestly…… a pretty boring one. I’m not sure that any of the candidates really helped or hurt their stock significantly. If I had to pick a winner it would either Bernie or Biden because he didn’t face many attacks even though he was having one of his patented *struggle to form complete sentences* nights (which shows how low the bar is for Biden). Bernie faced the toughest questions and a lot of the attacks which made him seem like a frontruner and he was able to stand up pretty well which should also help him. Overall I think everything in the race will remain pretty consistent. It looks like a 4-way race in Iowa & New Hampshire and everyone else needs to try and build momentum. Here’s some thoughts I jotted down on each candidate at various points in the night:

Bernie Sanders: Got the majority of attacks from other candidates/moderators. Got the first laugh of the debate with the Biden/North Korea joke. Was emphatic in denying he said a woman couldn’t win the Presidency. Should’ve went harder on Biden on electability (iraq, trade, social security, corruption). Did he lose any supporters? Probably Not Did he gain any supporters? Maybe
Joe Biden: Somehow avoided any attacks. Benefits from Warren/Sanders scrap as he fades into the background. Though he didn’t face many attacks from his opponents he fought a hard battle with the daunting task of articulating a coherent thought in full sentence form. The bar for Biden might honestly be underground at this point because this was a good night for him. Did he lose any supporters? Maybe Did he gain any supporters? Maybe
Elizabeth Warren: Gave her standards argument and sounded compelling doing it. Solid night for her but the whole thing with Bernie Sanders just wasn’t the best look. When everyone assumes it was someone in/related to your campaign who leaked this you, have to say what actually happened. (If you didn’t leak it say that) If he actually said it, there’s 2 options (he said “I don’t think a woman can win (sexist but seemingly out of character) or he made a point that sexism would hurt her campaign (more likely but also a point made by other candidates and in the media). So either say “He said it and he’s wrong and it was sexist or He made a point that I disagreed with because I yada, yada, yada, and I’m the best candidate to beat Trump. She didn’t have a bad night but didn’t excel. Weird she went after Bernie but won’t talk about Hunter Biden even though corruption is a central theme of her campaign. Did she lose any supporters? Probably not Did she gain any supporters? Maybe
Amy Klobuchar: Gotta give Amy credit she’s consistent. She sticks to the 3 M’s, Mom Jokes, Moderation, Midwest. She passed on another chance to attack Pete’s record, Midwestern Nice won this round. She probably has the best record out of any candidate not in the top 3. The media is trying too hard to make her stick but I’ll take her over than Pete or Steyer any day. Did she lose any supporters? Probably Not Did she gain any supporters? Maybe
Tom Steyer: Steyer always has a couple good ideas and I think I’m actually starting to like him as a person but he needs to end this vanity campaign. A complete non-starter for him & Bloomberg is if you actually cared so much, why not spend those hundreds of millions you’re spending on TV ads or billboards and spend them on actually helping people instead of trying to become President so you could maybe help them in the future. Did he lose any supporters? (Unclear if he has real, live supporters but) Probably not Did he gain any supporters? Maybe
Pete Buttigieg: Easily the most hateable candidate in the race. There’s not an issue in the world that’s not personal to Pete. He didn’t have a bad night but never really stood out. Disappeared at times. Only idea I like from Pete is sunset provision on any vote to authorize military force. At the same time he sorta looks like the kinda guy who might get off everytime he ordered a drone strike. Did he lose any supporters? Maybe Did he gain any supporters? Probably not

There was only one loser from the night though, not surprisingly, CNN. The debate started with a decently substantive debate over foreign policy, trade, and healthcare. This highlighted the differences between the top 3 candidates but (like usual) the framing of the debate was way off. The debate around healthcare is always framed through cost. Never is it should healthcare be a right, why does America pay more than anyone for healthcare, why are drug prices so high, etc. CNN shows their bias with questions like “How do you make sure [Medicare-For-All] doesn’t bankrupt the country” instead of “How do we make sure people don’t go bankrupt due to healthcare costs” or “Is the healthcare system we have today morally bankrupt”. Every question seemed to have been taken directly from insurance agency propaganda. On Foreign policy the questions about Iraq were solid but it took Tom Steyer to bring up the report that leaders (under R & D admins) have consistently lied to the public about the war in Afghanistan. I would have also liked to see the moderators push back on Biden for Syria, Libya, & drone strikes during the Obama Administration since he used that to try and shield himself. I just don’t understand how every single debate is just right-wing questions. Of course the candidates should face questions framed that way but in a Democratic Primary, you would think there would be some questions framed from a left wing perspective. I also hate how every issue is framed “Candidate X, why is Candidate Y wrong” or “Candidate Y, Candidate X said this about you please respond”. Yes you need to hash out the differences between the candidates but instead of just orchestrating mini fights, why not bring some actual facts or studies in and actually push back on the candidates’ talking points. But CNN really showed their bias/incompetence with the Warren/Sanders scrap.

I’m surprised it took CNN more than a half hour to get to their favorite piece of gossip at the moment, whether a woman could win the Presidency. Even though its a textbook he-said she-said situation as they were the only 2 people in the room, CNN is treating the accusation Bernie said a woman couldn’t win as a fact. Now let me remind you that this is the same group of people who with Trump always say “yes experts or facts say (x) but Trump says (y)” and treat it likes its a real debate. So apparently, according to CNN, a pathological liar like Trump should get the benefit of the doubt but when Sanders denies an accusation, doesn’t matter, it is still a fact.

Moderator: "So you didn't say that?"
Bernie: "No I didn't"
Moderator: "Sen. Warren, what did you do when he said it?"#DemDebate
— JP Newsman (@district4clowns) January 15, 2020

Seriously it is outrageous that CNN would take Warren's accusation as a statement of fact. Media malpractice
— Saagar Enjeti (@esaagar) January 15, 2020

If you want a more in depth look at the current state of the race click Here. As always I’ll end this recap with a look at the tiers:

Democrat Debate Preview/State of the Race

Tonight is the last debate before voting starts in Iowa (the site of the debate). Soon we’ll move on from dumb punditry based on nothing but the poll du jour and instead onto dumb punditry based on cherry picked results that fit their preconceived notions. This debate will feature 6 candidates (Sanders, Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, & Steyer). Nobody knows what will be talked about during the debate yet (though since CNN is hosting so we know Hillary Clinton will have been leaked the questions already) but there will definitely be questions on impeachment, why we can’t afford to pay for Medicare For All like every other major country, and why war with Iran might actually be good. Wolf Blitzer is one of the moderators tonight which will be interesting (1st time that sentenced has ever been typed out) to see if any of the candidates will speak out and take an anti-drone stance directly to his face. There will also almost certainly be a question about the Warren/Bernie sexism thing that leaked yesterday. Recap Here for anyone that missed it or just likes to read some good ol’ fashioned CNN bashing. (Side Note: What is wrong with Elizabeth Warren? From not running in 2016 to not endorsing Bernie in hopes of being VP to releasing a DNA test to now having her campaign leak something from a meeting 2 years ago…..whatever the political equivalent of the Midas Touch is, Warren seems to have the opposite. Did she receive a recent endorsement from Drake or something??? Warren had her surge, got all the glowing media coverage and now is resorting to desperate attacks like this. She went after Pete in the last debate and was pretty effective, why not keep doing that? It’s so easy even Amy Klobuchar’s mom jokes were landing against him. Pete looks like a grown up Patrick Bateman mini-me or a candidate created perfectly in a CIA lab to be President except he was cut short by about half a foot (just enough to give him a Napoleonic-complex). If you’re Warren and looking to attack someone new why not Biden? Warren never touches the Hunter Biden stuff but is willing to imply that the person she’s closest to (both personally and ideologically) is sexist which seems like a wild strategy to this ~~pundit~~ jabroni. The whole thing makes little sense but we’ll see how she handles it tonight.

Another thing that I’m sure will be touched on is electability. Now that the establishment media has finally realized Bernie could actually win, the attacks are sure to be on their way. It could backfire for them though as it highlights the holes in their groupthink that Bernie is unelectable but Biden is the most electable out of anyone. Instead of trying to convince you why that’s wrong, I’m gonna resort to a tactic favored in sports media, the blind resume. I’m gonna show 2 candidates record and let you decide who is more electable (keep in mind how Trump won in 2016):

Somehow the same geniuses who saw Trump effectively attack Clinton in 2016 over the Iraq War, Trade Deals, and Corruption think the guy with all the same baggage is somehow the most electable. The idea that Biden is the most electable is so accepted in the media its glossed over as if its a fact. Assumptions like that are the reason less people are tuning in to hear the “expert” opinions and instead turning to idiots like me on the Internet.

The overall State of the Race right now seems to be a 4 way race for the first 2 states (Iowa & New Hampshire) with the other candidates looking to use a good performance in one of those states to keep them in the race . Because of this I’ve got the field into 3 tiers now, those who can plausibly win the nomination, those who need momentum from an early state, & billionaires. Below I’ll lay out the tiers and each person’s path to victory.

Can Win the Nomination:

Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren: Both Sanders & Warren are in a very similar position. If one of them wins the first two contests that could catapult them into winning big on Super Tuesday and becoming the unquestioned frontrunner. If either wins 1, it obviously helps but they’ll still be in the pack. Worst case for both of these candidates is if they don’t win either Iowa or New Hampshire in that case they could be on a path to dropping out.
Joe Biden: Best case for Biden is that 2 different people win Iowa & New Hampshire and he can hang on in Nevada, South Carolina & on Super Tuesday. Worst Case for Biden is either Sanders or Warren win both and significantly cut into his support. If that happens his only appeal (electability) could be shattered and this run will end like the previous 3 times Biden has tried to run, failure

Candidates Needing Momentum

All the other candidates need momentum from the first two states to give them a chance to get significant delegates/bring in the money to keep them in the race. The Top person in this category is Pete Buttigieg who could win in Iowa or New Hampshire but it’s hard to see him winning the nomination if he can’t break 1% with African-Americans. Winning early might help but it seems crazy to think a big chunk of black voters will support the guy who has controversy over policing & race relations in the small town he was mayor as well as the guy who faked black endorsements for a plan of his during this campaign. Amy Klobuchar needs a strong performance in Iowa to prove she has actual support and keep her in the race. A poor performance would likely lead to her dropping out if her “MidWest appeal can’t work in Iowa (quick prayer for her staffers if that’s the case). Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard seem to be focused on New Hampshire and a good performance there, or a surprising performance in Iowa, would keep them afloat while disappointing performances could likewise see them exit. Though I will say Yang is unique in that his grassroots fundraising could keep him in the race for a while if they stick with him.

Billionaires

The last tier of candidates are the billionaires Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg. The media was shocked recently by Steyer’s rise in Nevada & SC (if you want to know why he’s surged, click here). Both are spending insane amounts of money so far which has bought them single digit support in polls. However, it’s very difficult to imagine either one has the ability to actually get people to vote for them. The only good thing about these 2 in the race is that for so long political scientists and laymens alike have argues about the role of money in politics and now we will finally see exactly how much support a person can straight up buy.

Democratic Debate Review

Are you wondering why people are losing trust trust in the media? Are you wondering why the Democratic party is a perpetual loser while simultaneously having public support behind the majority of issues? Well look no further than tonight’s Democratic Debate where the DNC and CNN decided that what people want is 12 egomaniacs sharing the stage fighting for speaking time. Anyone that decided that a 3 hour debate with 12 people on stage was a better idea than 2 2 hour debates with 6 people a piece ~~should be fired~~ need to be tar and feathered outta Ohio. After everything I just said it though I will give the DNC credit (#FairAndBalanced) The party has shown how progressive they have become to include the underrepresented, lobotomized demographic in their decision making staff.

Now that the important stuff is out of the way, let’s get into the substance of the debate. Most of the people on the stage held their own and appealed to their own base and will continue to tread water until Iowa. Only a few people stood out to me (Sanders, Yang, Butti…eg), and only a few losers (Biden, Beto). Now most other “news sites” will do winners/losers, or grade each candidate. Not only am I gonna do both, I’m also gonna tier all candidates into 4 groups FrontRunner, 2nd Tier. JV Stage, Should Drop Out.

FrontRunners:

Bernie Sanders: Bouncing back after a heart attack and having arguably the best debate performance of the night as well as his best personal performance. He was energetic, fiery and attacking Biden over Iraq, NAFTA, and the bankruptcy bill was a moment he needs to build on. Attack Biden, Pete, the Media, tell people to follow the money. Lean in to the angry old-man caricature. Keep saying how fucked up the system is and call out the enablers in the media and Democratic Party. This debate performance should continue solidify his position as a frontrunner. Winner Grade A-

Elizabeth Warren: Another solid performance where Warren is articulate, energetic, and steady. BY FAR best part of the her night was after Biden try to co-opt some of the credit for the CFPB where she slowly said thank you before pausing to name President Obama and not Biden. The most direct, indirect shot I’ve ever seen and clearly flustered Biden. One of the better performances of the night but didn’t quite move the needle relative to her position as much as other candidates. Treaded Water Grade B+

2nd Tier Candidates:

Andrew Yang: The most underestimated candidate in the field continues to perform. Leading the field ideas like Universal Basic Income, Concerns over Automation, and Drug Decriminalization that have shown popular causing some of the bottom-feeders to start to ride the wave. His strength is not only evident by debate performances and p*lls but fundraising as well. In Q3 he tripled his Q2 numbers raising $10 million (more than Beto and Klouba…ar combined) and good for 6th overall. Winner Grade A-

Pete Buttig…g/ Kamala Harris/ Cory Booker: All 3 are trying to be fill the ~~centrist~~ “progressive who like to get things done” lane and be the face of tes movement currently led by what’s left of Joe Biden. Mayor Pete’s main message is New Guy With Fresh* Ideas! Perfect example of his new, bold ideas is his healthcare plan which is Medicare for All….who want it (and can pay for it). He’s raising a lot of money from big donors but is still stuck bickering with Beto (aka Dante’s 2nd Circle of Hell). It looks like Kamala Harris is running the “Anti-Trump and Not Much Substance” play out of the Hillary Clintion playbook. She focused on getting Donald Trump kicked off twitter… which would force him to spend more time focusing on having the nuclear codes. Cory Booker was one of the people who got lost in the fray and I kinda forgot he was there. All three are very eloquent speakers and establishment darlings but none are real candidates but are 2nd tier due to lack of options. All Tread Water Grades B–

Need to be Relegated to the JV Debate:

Amy Kloub…ar/ Julian Castro/ Beto O’Rourke/ Tulsi Gabbard: Out of this group MidWestern Amy had the best night of the group as she fought for the centrist lane while constantly showcasing that she is nice and from the midwest. Castro and Gabbard were among the group that just blended in and were hurt by idiotic decision to have 12 people up there. Beto could arguably be in the “drop out” section as though he still has some fight left, he has lost the establishment darling and horny/unsatisfied woman voters to Mayor Pete as well as the stoned/skater/nerd voters to Andrew Yang. All Treaded Water Grades: Amy B-, Castro/Gabbard C, Beto D+

Need to Drop Out

Joe Biden: Another poor performance from a “frontrunner”. He continues to struggle forming coherent sentences trying to make his case as to why going back to normal is the way to go. Surprisingly only Bernie took a clean shot at his record but it will continue to haunt him. The end of the debate was the worst part for Biden as he was flustered by and patronizing towards Warren over the CFPB. Then in his closing remarks he screamed that America can do anything it puts its mind to, Anything! (Besides making health care a human right, aggressively addressing climate change, properly tax the rich, break up monopolies, and end these stupid wars). Loser Grade D

Tom Steyer: After buying his way onto the debate stage Steyer proving billionaires have too much money and make bad purchases. Actualy had some decent lines about corruption and the changes needed but it would be more sincere and/or compelling if it came from someone spending money on down-ballot races or issue education incstead of funding a vanity project. Treaded Water Grade D+

P.S. I was writing this during the debate but can’t not talk about CNN’s last question. Pop Quiz for those who didn’t watch: Was it about: Climate Change, Filibuster Reform, Corruption, Immigration, Criminal Justice Reform, Impeachment, Clean Water Crisis, Infrastructure, or Ellen DeGeneres & George Bush????? If you didn’t guess the DUMBEST FUCKING possible answer then you have way more trust in CNN than you should. This “News Network” used the last 15 minutes or 1/16 of a debate to talk about A TV HOST AND A WAR CRIMINAL TURNED PAINTER. No wonder Bernie Sanders had a heart attack having to endure these questions. I almost had a heart attack laying in bed when I heard that fucking question. Jesus Christ I don’t even have the words to describe this utterly stupid, beyond parody, Circus that is American politics and Political Media.

P.S.S Looking at the speaking times for each candidate is almost a worse look for CNN as it exposes the media’s bias against Sanders and Yang. Sanders, the guy who raised the most money in Q3 ($25 million), has by far the most donations and donors, got less speaking time than Amy Kloubo and Beto O’Rourke, 3.5 less minutes than Biden, and 9.5 less than Warren. To put that in perspective Yang, Castro, Gabbard, and Steyer all got less than 9 mins each total! Warren (22:47) Biden (16:39), Amy (13:18) are top 3 for speaking time. Andrew Yang got 8:32 mins to speak (9th). He got less than 10 mins less time than Amy or Beto combined while he outfundraised them by 2x last quarter. By literally any metric Yang is a top 5 candidate yet the media has still yet to adjust.